Long Run Relationships between Stock Market Returns and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from Turkey
The purpose of this study is to investigate whether current economic activities in Turkey have explanatory power over stock returns, or not. The data used in this study are monthly stock price indexes of Istanbul Stock Exchange and a set of macroeconomic variables, including money supply, exchange rate of US Dollar, trade balance, and the industrial production index. Engel-Granger and Johansen-Juselius co-integration tests and Granger Causality test were used in the study to explain the long-run relations among variables questioned. Obtained results illustrate that stock returns is co-integrated with a set of macroeconomic variables by providing a direct long-run equilibrium relation. However, the macroeconomic variables are not the leading indicators for the stock returns, because any causal relation from macroeconomic variables to the stock returns can not be determined in sample period. Contrarily, stock returns is the leading indicator for the macroeconomic performance for the Turkish case by supporting emerging market issues.
|Date of creation:||13 Sep 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on MSWordXP; to print on Acrobat PDF; pages: 8 ; figures: included. We never published this piece and now we would like to reduce our mailing and xerox cost by posting it.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
- Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1992. "Stock return variation and expected dividends : A time-series and cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 177-210, April.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2010.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests,"
1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
- Kaneko Takashi & Lee Bong-Soo, 1995. "Relative Importance of Economic Factors in the U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 290-307, September.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0309010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.