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The Future Development of EU Industry in a Global Context

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra M. Leitner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Manuel Marcias
  • Daniel Mirza
  • Robert Stehrer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Roman Stöllinger

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

Summary Global trade patterns are changing rapidly. Emerging economies are increasing their share of exports overall and intensifying competition in nearly all sectors. Low-cost advantage initially helped emerging economies, particularly China, penetrate low technology labour intensive sectors. More recently, emerging economies have started to compete in higher value-added sectors where European industries have traditionally had comparative advantage. Greater trade integration has also led to a dispersion of value chains well beyond national borders, increasing the granularity of trade. In this rapidly changing context, it is valuable to predict the future profile of EU exports so that the results can inform current policy. Using a model based approach this report examines the future profile of EU exports at sector and aggregate level in terms of trade volumes and quality competitiveness. A value chain approach allows then to quantify impacts on sectoral value added and GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra M. Leitner & Manuel Marcias & Daniel Mirza & Robert Stehrer & Roman Stöllinger, 2016. "The Future Development of EU Industry in a Global Context," wiiw Research Reports 409, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:409
    as

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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/the-future-development-of-eu-industry-in-a-global-context-dlp-3776.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eddy Bekkers & Michael Landesmann & Indre Macskasi, 2017. "Trade in Services versus Trade in Manufactures: The Relation between the Role of Tacit Knowledge, the Scope for Catch up, and Income Elasticity," wiiw Working Papers 139, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Peneder, Michael & Rammer, Christian (ed.), 2018. "Measuring Competitiveness," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 181906, September.
    3. Michael Peneder & Nicole Schmidt & Anna Strauss & Stefan Weingärtner, 2018. "Österreichs Wettbewerbsfähigkeit im internationalen Vergleich," WIFO Working Papers 565, WIFO.
    4. Michael Peneder & Christian Rammer, 2018. "Measuring Competitiveness," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60838, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade patterns; gravity; scenarios; quality of trade; GDP impact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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