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Salt of the Earth : Quantifying the Impact of Water Salinity on Global Agricultural Productivity

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  • Russ,Jason Daniel
  • Zaveri,Esha Dilip
  • Damania,Richard
  • Desbureaux,Sebastien Gael
  • Escurra,Jorge Jose
  • Rodella,Aude-Sophie

Abstract

Salinity in surface waters is on the rise throughout much of the world. Many factors contribute to this change, including increased water extraction, poor irrigation management, and sea-level rise. To date no study has attempted to quantify the impacts on global food production. This paper develops a plausibly causal model to test the sensitivity of global and regional agricultural productivity to changes in water salinity. To do so, it utilizes several local and global data sets on water quality and agricultural productivity and a model that isolates the impact of exogenous changes in water salinity on yields. The analysis trains a machine-learning model to predict salinity globally, to simulate average global food losses over 2000-13. These losses are found to be high, in the range of the equivalent of 124 trillion kilocalories, or enough to feed more than 170 million people every day, each year. Global maps building on these results show that pockets of high losses occur on all continents, but the losses can be expected to be particularly problematic in regions already experiencing malnutrition challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Russ,Jason Daniel & Zaveri,Esha Dilip & Damania,Richard & Desbureaux,Sebastien Gael & Escurra,Jorge Jose & Rodella,Aude-Sophie, 2020. "Salt of the Earth : Quantifying the Impact of Water Salinity on Global Agricultural Productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9144, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elodie Blanc & Eric Strobl, 2014. "Is Small Better? A Comparison of the Effect of Large and Small Dams on Cropland Productivity in South Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(3), pages 545-576.
    2. Elodie Blanc & Eric Strobl, 2013. "The impact of climate change on cropland productivity: evidence from satellite based products at the river basin scale in Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 873-890, April.
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    4. Zaveri, Esha D. & Russ, Jason & Damania, Richard, 2017. "Drenched Fields and Parched Farms: Evidence along the Extensive and Intensive Margins," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258409, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Strobl, Eric & Strobl, Robert O., 2011. "The distributional impact of large dams: Evidence from cropland productivity in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 432-450, November.
    6. Dasgupta, Susmita & Hossain, Md. Moqbul & Huq, Mainul & Wheeler, David, 2014. "Climate change, soil salinity, and the economics of high-yield rice production in coastal Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7140, The World Bank.
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