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Oil and the propensity to armed struggle in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria

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  • Oyefusi, Aderoju

Abstract

This paper attempts to explain the determinants of the propensity to armed struggle and the probability of participation by individuals in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria using primary (micro) data. While grievance appears to be pervasive among individuals and communities in the region and can be systematically explained, neither the grievance level nor its commonly cited causal factors appear to be strong enough to create a disposition toward armed rebellion. Rather, factors that reduce the opportunity cost and risk of participation or increase the perceived benefits appear to be more important. The study identifies three of these factors that are amenable to the policymaker's (government's) control as income level, educational attainment, and government presence.

Suggested Citation

  • Oyefusi, Aderoju, 2007. "Oil and the propensity to armed struggle in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4194, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4194
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Macartan Humphreys, 2005. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 508-537, August.
    2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2005. "Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 625-633, August.
    3. Deininger,Klaus W., 2003. "Causes and consequences of civil strife - micro-level evidence from Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3045, The World Bank.
    4. Tony Addison & Philippe Le Billon & S. Mansoob Murshed, 2002. "Conflict in Africa: The Cost of Peaceful Behaviour," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 11(3), pages 365-386, September.
    5. Grossman, Herschel I, 1991. "A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 912-921, September.
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