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Oil and the propensity to armed struggle in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria

  • Oyefusi, Aderoju
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    This paper attempts to explain the determinants of the propensity to armed struggle and the probability of participation by individuals in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria using primary (micro) data. While grievance appears to be pervasive among individuals and communities in the region and can be systematically explained, neither the grievance level nor its commonly cited causal factors appear to be strong enough to create a disposition toward armed rebellion. Rather, factors that reduce the opportunity cost and risk of participation or increase the perceived benefits appear to be more important. The study identifies three of these factors that are amenable to the policymaker's (government's) control as income level, educational attainment, and government presence.

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    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4194.

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    Date of creation: 01 Apr 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4194
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    1. Tony Addison & Philippe Le Billon & S. Mansoob Murshed, 2002. "Conflict in Africa: The Cost of Peaceful Behaviour," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 11(3), pages 365-386, September.
    2. Deininger, Klaus, 2003. "Causes and consequences of civil strife - micro-level evidence from Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3045, The World Bank.
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