IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/2308.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How small should an economy's fiscal deficit be? - a monetary programming approach

Author

Listed:
  • Beckerman,Paul E.

Abstract

The author describes a spread-sheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a policymaker's"vector"of principal macroeconomic objectives (including real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, and international reserve accumulation). The model focuses on the monetary accounts, applying balance-of-payments forecasts formulated separately, but based on the same macroeconomic objectives. The model is a consistency exercise, intended as part of a broader consistency exercise for a given macro-economy. It offers one more perspective on the question of how large a government deficit should be - a perspective that can be used in conjunction with others. For each forecast period, the model determines consistent period-end and period-average stocks for the economy's outstanding central bank assets, and liabilities and, government obligations. I applies forecasting assumptions about interest rates to forecast central bank profit-and-loss flows, and takes account of these in determining the overall flow of resources that would be available to finance the government deficit. An annex describes a (purely illustrative) simulation carried out during 1999 for Ecuador.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckerman,Paul E., 2000. "How small should an economy's fiscal deficit be? - a monetary programming approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2308, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/09/15/090224b082b05a5d/1_0/Rendered/PDF/How0small0shou0programming0approach.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aquiles A. Almansi & Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1990. "Reforma Monetaria y Financiera en Hiperinflación," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 67, Universidad del CEMA.
    2. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Mr. Alfredo Mario Leone, 1993. "Institutional and Operational Aspects of Central Bank Losses," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1993/014, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Beckerman, Paul, 1997. "Central-bank decapitalization in developing economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 167-178, February.
    5. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Le Houerou, Philippe & Sierra, Hector, 1993. "Estimating quasi-fiscal deficits in a consistency framework : the case of Madagascar," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1105, The World Bank.
    7. Eyzaguirre, Nicolás & Larrañaga, Osvaldo, 1990. "Macroeconomía de las operaciones cuasi fiscales en Chile," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 33542, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Mr. Peter Stella, 1997. "Do Central Banks Need Capital?," IMF Working Papers 1997/083, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Ponty, 2005. "Un modèle MAcroDYNamique des économies des pays membres de l’UEMOA : MADYN," Documents de travail 118, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    2. Christian A. Emini & Hippolyte Fofack, 2004. "A financial social accounting matrix for the integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : application to Cameroon with a fixed-price multiplier analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3219, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beckerman, Paul, 1997. "Central-bank decapitalization in developing economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 167-178, February.
    2. Mr. Peter Stella, 2002. "Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 2002/137, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Martin, Fernando M., 2015. "Debt, inflation and central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-150.
    4. MARTÍNEZ-RUIZ, Elena & NOGUES-MARCO, Pilar, 2018. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Stability During the Gold Standard. Spain 1874—1914," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-75, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Lars P Feld & Volker Wieland, 2021. "The German Federal Constitutional Court Ruling and the European Central Bank’s Strategy," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 217-253.
    6. CHOI, Jay Pil & FURUSAWA, Taiji, 2018. "Transfer Pricing and the Arm's Length Principle under Imperfect Competition," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-73, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. L. Lambertini & R. Rovelli, 2002. "Optimal Fiscal Stabilization Policy With Credible Central Bank Independence," Working Papers 460, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Adamcik, Santiago, 2008. "Sobre la Elección de Regímenes de Tipo de Cambio en Economías Emergentes [On Choosing an Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies]," MPRA Paper 9329, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    10. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2019. "Behavioral Monetary Policymaking: Economics, Political Economy and Psychology," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Behavioral Finance The Coming of Age, chapter 9, pages 285-329, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    12. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-289, December.
    13. Koulischer, François & Struyven, Daan, 2014. "Central bank liquidity provision and collateral quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 113-130.
    14. Luis Felipe Céspedes C. & Rodrigo Valdés P., 2006. "Central Bank Autonomy: the Chilean Experience," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(1), pages 25-47, April.
    15. Förch, Thomas & Sunde, Uwe, 2012. "Central bank independence and stock market returns in emerging economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 77-80.
    16. Mr. Andrew J Swiston & Ms. Florencia Frantischek & Mr. Przemek Gajdeczka & Alexander Herman, 2014. "Central Bank Financial Strength in Central America and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2014/087, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Nolivos, Roberto Delhy & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2014. "The role of central bank independence on optimal taxation and seigniorage," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 440-458.
    18. Jerger, Jürgen & Röhe, Oke, 2012. "Die Unabhängigkeit von Zentralbanken - Ökonomische Begründung, Messung und Zukunftsperspektive," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 464, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    19. Tai Dang Nguyen, 2016. "Impact Of Government Spending On Inflation In Asian Emerging Economies: Evidence From India, China, And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1171-1200, December.
    20. Michele Cavallo & Marco Del Negro & W. Scott Frame & Jamie Grasing & Benjamin A. Malin & Carlo Rosa, 2019. "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 255-306, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.