Lives, Livelihoods, and Learning : A Global Perspective on the Well-Being Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study compares the magnitude of national level losses that the COVID-19 pandemic inflicted across three critical dimensions: loss of life, loss of income, and loss of learning. The well-being consequences of excess mortality are expressed in years of life lost, while those of income losses and school closures are expressed in additional years spent in poverty (measured by national poverty lines), either currently or in the future. While 2020–21 witnessed a global drop in life expectancy and the largest one-year increase in global poverty in many decades, widespread school closures may cause almost twice as large an increase in future poverty. The estimates of well-being loss for the average global citizen include a loss of 8 days of life, an additional two and half weeks spent in poverty in 2020 and 2021 (17 days), and the possibility of an additional month of life in poverty in the future due to school closures (31 days). Well-being losses are unequally distributed across countries. The typical high-income country suffered the least additional poverty years while low- and low-middle-income countries suffered far higher poverty losses with roughly the same degree of mortality shock as richer countries. Upper-middle income countries experienced the highest mortality shock of all and also high poverty costs. Aggregating total losses requires the valuation of a year of life lost vis-à-vis an additional year spent in poverty. For the wide range of valuations considered, high-income countries experienced the lowest well-being loss. Aggregate losses were much higher among lower-income countries. This is especially true for countries in the Latin America region who suffered the largest mortality costs as well as large losses in learning and sharp increases in poverty.