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Projecting the impact of COVID-19 on education and intergenerational mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Neidhöfer

    (Mannheim, Germany, and Turkish-German University)

  • Nora Lustig

    (Tulane University)

  • Patricio Larroulet

    (Emberlink)

Abstract

Using microsimulations, we project the effect of instructional losses caused by COVID-19 on secondary school completion rates and intergenerational mobility of education in eight countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. On average, secondary school completion rates could decrease by 12 percentage points overall and by 16 points for children with low-educated parents. Interestingly, in most countries the gender gap diminishes because, for men, the projected decrease in secondary school completion is higher. A small additional impact on girls’ education due to the potential rise in teenage pregnancy is observed in some countries. Intergenerational mobility of education in the eight Sub-Saharan countries in our sample is expected to decrease, on average, by 10%.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Patricio Larroulet, 2025. "Projecting the impact of COVID-19 on education and intergenerational mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 23(2), pages 371-396, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecin:v:23:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10888-024-09648-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10888-024-09648-3
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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