IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10532.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Minding the Gap : Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization

Author

Listed:
  • Goldemberg,Diana
  • Jordan,Luke Simon
  • Kenyon,Thomas

Abstract

This paper applies novel techniques to long-standing questions of aid effectiveness. It first replicates findings that donor finance is discernibly but weakly associated with sector outcomes in recipient countries. It then shows robustly that donors' own ratings of project success provide limited information on the contribution of those projects to development outcomes. By training a machine learning model on World Bank projects, the paper shows instead that the strongest predictor of these projects’ contribution to outcomes is their degree of adaptation to country context, and the largest differences between ratings and actual impact occur in large projects in institutionally weak settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldemberg,Diana & Jordan,Luke Simon & Kenyon,Thomas, 2023. "Minding the Gap : Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10532, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10532
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099434007312336860/pdf/IDU0fc5d219f0d389045880bfb20d9cc719ef84a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    2. Louise Ashton & Jed Friedman & Diana Goldemberg & Mustafa Zakir Hussain & Thomas Kenyon & Akib Khan & Mo Zhou, 2023. "A Puzzle with Missing Pieces: Explaining the Effectiveness of World Bank Development Projects," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(1), pages 115-146.
    3. Birchler, Kassandra & Michaelowa, Katharina, 2016. "Making aid work for education in developing countries: An analysis of aid effectiveness for primary education coverage and quality," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 37-52.
    4. Williams, Martin J., 2019. "External validity and policy adaptation: From impact evaluation to policy design," PEGNet Policy Briefs 18/2019, PEGNet - Poverty Reduction, Equity and Growth Network, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Mishra, Prachi & Newhouse, David, 2009. "Does health aid matter?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 855-872, July.
    6. Honig, Dan & Lall, Ranjit & Parks, Bradley C., 2022. "When does transparency improve institutional performance? Evidence from 20,000 projects in 183 countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113847, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julian Donaubauer & Dierk Herzer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Aid under Post-Conflict Conditions: A Sector-Specific Analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 720-736, April.
    2. Lee, Kye Woo & Hong, Minji, 2018. "Relative Effectiveness of Various Development Finance Flows: A Comparative Study," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(3), pages 91-115.
    3. Iyabo Adeola Olanrele & Segun Subair Awode, 2020. "Development Aid and Human Capital Development in Nigeria: A Sector Level-Analysis," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
    4. Sherif M. Hassan, 2020. "Revisiting the Development Impact of Sectorally Disaggregated Foreign Aid," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 123-149, June.
    5. Arndt, Channing & Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Assessing Foreign Aid’s Long-Run Contribution to Growth and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 6-18.
    6. Arndt, Channing & Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Assessing Foreign Aid’s Long-Run Contribution to Growth and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 6-18.
    7. Johannes Jakubik & Stefan Feuerriegel, 2022. "Data‐driven allocation of development aid toward sustainable development goals: Evidence from HIV/AIDS," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(6), pages 2739-2756, June.
    8. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Christian Hansen & Kengo Kato, 2018. "High-dimensional econometrics and regularized GMM," CeMMAP working papers CWP35/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Nicolaj N. Mühlbach, 2020. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," CREATES Research Papers 2020-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Kyle Colangelo & Ying-Ying Lee, 2019. "Double debiased machine learning nonparametric inference with continuous treatments," CeMMAP working papers CWP72/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Zhao, Jun, 2020. "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 101-122.
    12. Ruoxuan Xiong & Allison Koenecke & Michael Powell & Zhu Shen & Joshua T. Vogelstein & Susan Athey, 2021. "Federated Causal Inference in Heterogeneous Observational Data," Papers 2107.11732, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    13. Sophie Brana & Dalila Chenaf-Nicet & Delphine Lahet, 2023. "Drivers of cross-border bank claims: The role of foreign-owned banks in emerging countries," Working Papers 2023.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    14. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    15. Khanh Duong, 2024. "Is meritocracy just? New evidence from Boolean analysis and Machine learning," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 1795-1821, October.
    16. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2018. "Approximate residual balancing: debiased inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 80(4), pages 597-623, September.
    17. Jelena Bradic & Weijie Ji & Yuqian Zhang, 2021. "High-dimensional Inference for Dynamic Treatment Effects," Papers 2110.04924, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    18. Tadadjeu, Sosson & Njangang, Henri & Asongu, Simplice A. & Kamguia, Brice, 2023. "Natural resources, child mortality and governance quality in African countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2019. "Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time," Papers 1904.01490, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    20. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2025. "Design-based identification with formula instruments: a review," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 83-108.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.