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Minding the Gap : Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization

Author

Listed:
  • Goldemberg,Diana
  • Jordan,Luke Simon
  • Kenyon,Thomas

Abstract

This paper applies novel techniques to long-standing questions of aid effectiveness. It first replicates findings that donor finance is discernibly but weakly associated with sector outcomes in recipient countries. It then shows robustly that donors' own ratings of project success provide limited information on the contribution of those projects to development outcomes. By training a machine learning model on World Bank projects, the paper shows instead that the strongest predictor of these projects’ contribution to outcomes is their degree of adaptation to country context, and the largest differences between ratings and actual impact occur in large projects in institutionally weak settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldemberg,Diana & Jordan,Luke Simon & Kenyon,Thomas, 2023. "Minding the Gap : Aid Effectiveness, Project Ratings and Contextualization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10532, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10532
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louise Ashton & Jed Friedman & Diana Goldemberg & Mustafa Zakir Hussain & Thomas Kenyon & Akib Khan & Mo Zhou, 2023. "A Puzzle with Missing Pieces: Explaining the Effectiveness of World Bank Development Projects," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(1), pages 115-146.
    2. Williams, Martin J., 2019. "External validity and policy adaptation: From impact evaluation to policy design," PEGNet Policy Briefs 18/2019, PEGNet - Poverty Reduction, Equity and Growth Network, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Mishra, Prachi & Newhouse, David, 2009. "Does health aid matter?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 855-872, July.
    4. Ndikumana, Léonce & Pickbourn, Lynda, 2017. "The Impact of Foreign Aid Allocation on Access to Social Services in sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Water and Sanitation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 104-114.
    5. Birchler, Kassandra & Michaelowa, Katharina, 2016. "Making aid work for education in developing countries: An analysis of aid effectiveness for primary education coverage and quality," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 37-52.
    6. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    7. Honig, Dan & Lall, Ranjit & Parks, Bradley C., 2022. "When does transparency improve institutional performance? Evidence from 20,000 projects in 183 countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113847, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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