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How Two Tests Can Help Contain COVID-19 and Revive the Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Damien de Walque
  • Jed Friedman
  • Roberta Gatti
  • Aaditya Mattoo

Abstract

Faced with COVID-19 (Coronavirus), countries are taking drastic action based on little information. Two tests can help governments shorten and soften economically costly suppression measures while still containing the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The first?a PCR assay?identifies people currently infected by testing for the presence of live virus in the subject. The second?an antibody test?identifies those rendered immune after being infected by searching for COVID-19-specific antibodies. The first test can help contain the disease because it facilitates the identification of infected persons, the tracing of their contacts, and isolation in the very early stages of an epidemic?or after a period of suppression, in case of a resurgent epidemic. The second can help us assess the extent of immunity in the general population or subgroups, to finetune social isolation and to manage health care resources. Wide application of the two tests could transform the battle against COVID-19 (Coronavirus), but implementing either on a large scale in developing countries presents challenges. The first test is generally available, but needs to be processed in adequately equipped laboratories with trained staff. The second test is easy to perform and can be processed quickly on the spot, but at this stage it is produced and available only on a limited basis in a few countries. This policy brief reviews the use of both tests, suggests strategies to target their use, and discusses the benefits and costs of such strategies. If PCR assay testing, together with tracing and isolation, helps reduce the duration of suppression measures by two weeks, and antibody testing allows one-fifth of the immune return to work early, the gain could be about 2 percent of national income, or about $8 billion for a country like the Philippines. Because the estimated economic benefits of the tests are likely to far outweigh the cost, the international community must help countries develop the capacit
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Suggested Citation

  • Damien de Walque & Jed Friedman & Roberta Gatti & Aaditya Mattoo, 2020. "How Two Tests Can Help Contain COVID-19 and Revive the Economy," World Bank Publications - Reports 33583, The World Bank Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:33583
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clarke, Lorcan, 2020. "An introduction to economic studies, health emergencies, and COVID-19," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105051, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Thomas Kruse & Philipp Strack, 2020. "Optimal Control of an Epidemic through Social Distancing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2229R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2020.
    3. Loayza,Norman V., 2020. "Costs and Trade-Offs in the Fight Against the COVID-19 Pandemic : A Developing Country Perspective," Research and Policy Briefs 148535, The World Bank.
    4. World Bank, 2020. "Malawi Economic Monitor, July 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34220, The World Bank Group.

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