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MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Shantayanan Devarajan
  • Lili Mottaghi

Abstract

This report estimates economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to fall short of expectations, at 2.6 percent in 2015, below the 2.8 percent predicted in October. Being constrained by war, terrorism and to some extent cheap oil, short term growth prospects in MENA remain “cautiously pessimistic.” Not only have the civil wars caused untold damage to human and physical capital, in Yemen the number of poor people has almost doubled after the war, but they have created one of the biggest forced displacement crises since World War II. The report examines the different ways in which civil wars are affecting the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement. We also explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. A peace settlement in the war-torn Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen could lead to a swift rebound in oil output and exports, allowing them to increase fiscal space, improve current account balances and boost economic growth in the medium term with positive spillovers to the neighboring countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Shantayanan Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, 2016. "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 23705, The World Bank Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:23705
    Note: ISBN 978-1-4648-0822-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shanta Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, 2015. "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015 : Plunging Oil Prices," World Bank Publications - Reports 21349, The World Bank Group.
    2. Lili Mottaghi, 2015. "MENA Economies Hit by Conflicts, Civil Wars, and Lower Oil Prices," World Bank Publications - Reports 23482, The World Bank Group.
    3. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Gerald F. Parise, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554, November.
    4. Lili Mottaghi, 2015. "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief : Plunging Oil Prices," World Bank Publications - Reports 21462, The World Bank Group.
    5. Chiara Gigliarano & Paolo Verme & Christina Wieser & Kerren Hedlund & Marc Petzoldt & Marco Santacroce, 2016. "The Welfare of Syrian Refugees," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23228, October.
    6. Shanta Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, 2015. "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 22294, The World Bank Group.
    7. repec:bla:kyklos:v:45:y:1992:i:4:p:531-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Shamit Chakravarti & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2002. "Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/142, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Quy-Toan Do & Shantayanan Devarajan & Anne Brockmeyer & Lili Mottaghi & Clement Joubert & Kartika Bhatia & Mohamed Abdel-Jelil, 2016. "Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 25087, The World Bank Group.
    2. repec:wbk:wboper:26305 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Shantayanan Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, 2016. "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 24684, The World Bank Group.
    4. Quy-Toan Do & Shantayanan Devarajan & Mohamed Abdel Jelil & Lili Mottaghi, 2016. "Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 24010, The World Bank Group.
    5. Shantayanan Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, 2017. "Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2017," World Bank Publications - Reports 28395, The World Bank Group.

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