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Frequency and Severity of Current Account Reversals: An Analysis with a Rational Expectations Regime Switching DSGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Masashige Hamano

    (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University)

  • Yuki Murakami

    (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University)

Abstract

We employ a small open economy model with debt-deflation, where agents form expectations regarding sudden stops—typically characterized by a combination of current account reversals and sharp output declines. To this end, we construct a rational expectations regime switching DSGE model with occasionally binding collateral constraints. In environments with frequent sudden stops, agents anticipate future occurrences more strongly. Heightened expectations of losing access to international financial markets prompt collateral-constrained households to increase precautionary savings. These additional savings help sustain consumption and support collateral prices during turbulent periods, counteracting capital flight. However, as sudden stops become more frequent, the welfare loss due to pecuniary externalities intensifies, necessitating stronger macroprudential capital control measures. We provide empirical evidence from emerging economies that aligns with our theoretical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Masashige Hamano & Yuki Murakami, 2025. "Frequency and Severity of Current Account Reversals: An Analysis with a Rational Expectations Regime Switching DSGE Model," Working Papers 2422, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2422
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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