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The Changing Effect of Energy and Rice Prices and Remittances on Overall Inflation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Harold Glenn A. Valera

    (BSP Research Academy, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)

  • Mark J. Holmes

    (University of Waikato)

  • Vic K. Delloro

    (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)

Abstract

In this paper, we address the challenge of using aggregate data to study the effects of fuel and rice prices on overall inflation in emerging markets. Our quantile regression analysis using the Philippines' province-level monthly data from 1996 to 2024 finds a strong impact during periods of higher inflation. Indeed, this impact is verified in Indonesia, Thailand, and India. We also find that inflation targeting and rice tariffication reduce such an impact and that high-poverty and rice-deficit areas exhibit a higher fall in rice inflation effect post-tariffication. In addition, the impact of remittances on Philippine inflation is nonlinear, while it is asymmetric for the other three countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Vic K. Delloro, 2025. "The Changing Effect of Energy and Rice Prices and Remittances on Overall Inflation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Philippines," Working Papers in Economics 25/05, University of Waikato.
    • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:25/05
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    File URL: https://repec.its.waikato.ac.nz/wai/econwp/2505.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CPI inflation; energy and rice prices; remittances; quantile regression; panel data; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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