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Mass Covid-19 Vaccination and Excess Mortality: Direct and Indirect Pathways

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Abstract

The rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations is unprecedented in pace and scope. Over seven billion doses have been administered to date so aggregate effects should have become apparent. This cross-country panel data study relates weekly estimates of excess mortality to the incidence of Covid-19 vaccinations, for the 32 OECD countries with high frequency excess mortality data available. The correlation between excess mortality and vaccination incidence is decomposed into two pathways: one from vaccination via Covid-attributed deaths to excess mortality and a non-Covid pathway that goes directly from vaccination to excess mortality, with Covid-19 deaths held constant. The non-Covid pathway from vaccination to excess mortality appears at least as large as the Covid pathway, and is the larger of the two pathways if lagged effects are captured. In results broken down by age, the effects are not apparent for the youngest age group who, until recently, were not exposed to Covid-19 vaccination.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gibson, 2021. "Mass Covid-19 Vaccination and Excess Mortality: Direct and Indirect Pathways," Working Papers in Economics 21/13, University of Waikato.
    • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:21/13
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    File URL: https://repec.its.waikato.ac.nz/wai/econwp/2113.pdf
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    1. Edouard Mathieu & Hannah Ritchie & Esteban Ortiz-Ospina & Max Roser & Joe Hasell & Cameron Appel & Charlie Giattino & Lucas Rodés-Guirao, 2021. "A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 947-953, July.
    2. John Gibson, 2023. "Jabbing the economy back to life?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(21), pages 2999-3005, December.
    3. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis, 2002. "The Inheritance of Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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