The probability of nontrivial common knowledge
We study the probability that two or more agents can attain common knowledge of nontrivial events when the size of the state space grows large. We adopt the standard epistemic model where the knowledge of an agent is represented by a partition of the state space. Each agent is endowed with a partition generated by a random scheme. Assuming that agents' partitions are independently and identically distributed, we prove that the asymptotic probability of nontrivial common knowledge undergoes a phase transition. Regardless of the number of agents, when their cognitive capacity is sufficiently large, the probability goes to one; and when it is small, it goes to zero.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2011|
|Date of revision:||Mar 2012|
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- Ziv Hellman & Dov Samet, 2010.
"How Common Are Common Priors?,"
Discussion Paper Series
dp532, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
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