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Banks and Output Fluctuations

  • Carol Scotese Lehr

    ()

    (Department of Economics, VCU School of Business)

This paper presents evidence that disturbances originating in the banking sector can generate business cycles. The banking shocks are measured as innovations to the banking sector’s conversion of deposits into loans: a measure of intermediation efficiency. Positive banking efficiency shocks generate a significant positive impact on short-run output growth rates and a negative impact on a version of the spread between short and long term interest rates. The results are robust with respect to alternative calculations of the banking efficiency measure, to identification using short versus long-run restrictions and to other reasonable variations in the identification scheme.

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Paper provided by VCU School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0101.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:0101
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Web page: http://www.business.vcu.edu/economics

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  1. Anil K Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 565-592.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  3. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9002, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
  4. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Townsend, Robert M., 1983. "Theories of intermediated structures," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 221-272, January.
  7. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
  11. John H. Boyd & Edward C. Prescott, 1985. "Financial intermediary-coalitions," Staff Report 87, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Allen N. Berger & David B. Humphrey, 1992. "Measurement and Efficiency Issues in Commercial Banking," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 245-300 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Silber, William L, 1983. "The Process of Financial Innovation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 89-95, May.
  14. Edward J. Kane, 1981. "Accelerating Inflation, Technological Innovation, and the Decreasing Effectiveness of Banking Regulation," NBER Working Papers 0638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  16. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
  17. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
  18. Robert M. Townsend, 1978. "Intermediation with Costly Bilateral Exchange," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 417-425.
  19. Scotese, C.A. & Wang, P., 1995. "Dynamic Effects of Financial Intermediation over the Business Cycle," Papers 04-95-11, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  20. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1995. "Financial Intermediation and The Great Depression: A Multiple Equilibrium Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 5130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
  22. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1994. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
  24. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
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