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Banks and Output Fluctuations

  • Carol Scotese Lehr

    ()

    (Department of Economics, VCU School of Business)

This paper presents evidence that disturbances originating in the banking sector can generate business cycles. The banking shocks are measured as innovations to the banking sector’s conversion of deposits into loans: a measure of intermediation efficiency. Positive banking efficiency shocks generate a significant positive impact on short-run output growth rates and a negative impact on a version of the spread between short and long term interest rates. The results are robust with respect to alternative calculations of the banking efficiency measure, to identification using short versus long-run restrictions and to other reasonable variations in the identification scheme.

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Paper provided by VCU School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0101.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:0101
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Phone: 804/828-1717
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Web page: http://www.business.vcu.edu/economics

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  1. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1991. "Monetary policy and credit conditions: evidence from the composition of external finance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 154, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
  6. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  7. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
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  11. Kane, Edward J, 1981. "Accelerating Inflation, Technological Innovation, and the Decreasing Effectiveness of Banking Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 355-67, May.
  12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
  13. Allen N. Berger & David B. Humphrey, 1992. "Measurement and Efficiency Issues in Commercial Banking," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 245-300 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Intermediation with Costly Bilateral Exchange," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 417-25, October.
  15. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1994. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
  17. Anil K. Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1993. "Credit conditions and the cyclical behavior of inventories," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  18. Scotese, Carol Lehr & Wang, Ping, 2000. "Dynamic Effects of Financial Intermediation over the Business Cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 34-57, January.
  19. Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209, April.
  20. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  21. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1995. "Financial Intermediation and The Great Depression: A Multiple Equilibrium Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 5130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Townsend, Robert M., 1983. "Theories of intermediated structures," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 221-272, January.
  23. Silber, William L, 1983. "The Process of Financial Innovation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 89-95, May.
  24. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
  25. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
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