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The Long-run Relationship of Gold and Silver and the Influence of Bubbles and Financial Crises

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. We closely follow Escribano and Granger (1998) and extend their study. First, we use a 40-year sample period from 1970-2010 and examine the existence and stability of a long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. Second, we study the role of bubbles and financial crises for the relationship between gold and silver. The results indicate that extreme price changes in certain periods create long-run (co-integration relationships since gold and silver are not co-integrated in “normal” periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk G Baur & Duy T. Tran, 2012. "The Long-run Relationship of Gold and Silver and the Influence of Bubbles and Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 172, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:172
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    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp172.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    3. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254.
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    5. Jonathan A. Batten & Cetin Ciner & Brian M. Lucey & Peter G. Szilagyi, 2013. "The structure of gold and silver spread returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 561-570, March.
    6. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    7. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    8. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Rohan Christie David, 2000. "Price discovery in strategically-linked markets: the case of the gold-silver spread," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 227-234.
    9. Shi-Miin Liu & Chih-Hsien Chou, 2003. "Parities and Spread Trading in Gold and Silver Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 899-911.
    10. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    11. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jbfina:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:44-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zhu, Huiming & Peng, Cheng & You, Wanhai, 2016. "Quantile behaviour of cointegration between silver and gold prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 119-125.
    3. Bildirici, Melike E. & Turkmen, Ceren, 2015. "Nonlinear causality between oil and precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 202-211.
    4. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    5. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2015. "Cointegration of the prices of gold and silver: RALS-based evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 133-137.
    6. repec:eee:quaeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:263-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1267-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Persistence in Trends and Cycles of Gold and Silver Prices: Evidence from Historical Data," Working Papers 201816, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:244-252 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "Are precious metals a hedge against exchange-rate movements? An empirical exploration using bayesian additive regression trees," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 27-38.
    11. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:292-308 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Andreasson, Pierre & Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2016. "Impact of speculation and economic uncertainty on commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 115-127.
    13. repec:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:283-290 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Rossen, Anja, 2014. "Modeling dynamics of metal price series via state space approach with two common factors," HWWI Research Papers 156, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    15. He, Kaijian & Liu, Youjin & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2016. "Multiscale dependence analysis and portfolio risk modeling for precious metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-233.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    co-integration; nonlinear error-correlation; Granger causality; gold; silver; bubbles; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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