Two-Factor Model for Low Interest Rate Regimes
This paper derives a two factor model for the term structure of interest rates that segments the yield curve in a natural way. The first factor involves modelling a non-negative short rate process that primarily determines the early part of the yield curve and is obtained as a truncated Gaussian short rate. The second factor mainly influences the later part of the yield curve via the market index. The market index proxies the growth optimal portfolio (GOP) and is modelled as a squared Bessel process of dimension four. Although this setup can be applied to any interest rate environment, this study focuses on the difficult but important case where the short rate stays close to zero for a prolonged period of time. For the proposed model, an equivalent risk neutral martingale measure is niether possible nor required. Hence we use the benchmark approach where the GOP is chosen as numeraire. Fair derivative prices are then calculated via conditional expectations under the real world probability measure. Using this methodology we derive pricing functions for zero coupon bonds and options on zero coupon bonds. The proposed model naturally generates yield curve shapes commonly observed in the market. More importantly, the model replicates the key features of the interest rate cap market for economies with low interest rate regimes. In particular, the implied volatility term structure displays a consistent downward slope from extremely high levels of volatility together with a distinct negative skew.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published as: Miller, S. and Platen, E., 2004, "A Two-Factor Model for Low Interest Rate Regime", Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 11(1), 107-133.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia|
Phone: +61 2 9514 7777
Fax: +61 2 9514 7711
Web page: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
- Eckhard Platen, 2003. "Modeling the Volatility and Expected Value of a Diversified World Index," Research Paper Series 103, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
- Eckhard Platen, 2003.
"An Alternative Interest Rate Term Structure Model,"
Research Paper Series
97, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Eckhard Platen, 2005. "An Alternative Interest Rate Term Structure Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 717-735.
- David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 2004.
"Understanding the Implied Volatility Surface for Options on a Diversified Index,"
Research Paper Series
128, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Understanding the Implied Volatility Surface for Options on a Diversified Index," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 55-77, March.
- Leif Andersen & Jesper Andreasen, 2000. "Volatility skews and extensions of the Libor market model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32.
- Eckhard Platen, 2001. "Arbitrage in Continuous Complete Markets," Research Paper Series 72, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Damiano Brigo & Fabio Mercurio, 2001. "A deterministic-shift extension of analytically-tractable and time-homogeneous short-rate models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 369-387.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Black, Fischer, 1995. " Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-76, December.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Duncan Ford)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.