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Modeling the Volatility and Expected Value of a Diversified World Index

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Abstract

This paper considers a diversified world stock index in a continuous financial market with the growth optimal portfolio (GOP) as the reference unit or benchmark. Diversified broadly based portfolios, which include major world stock market indices, are shown to approximate the GOP. It is demonstrated that a key financial quantity is the drift of the discounted GOP, which can be expressed explicitly using a certain quadratic variation term. Using real market approximations for the discounted GOP it is shown that its drift does not vary greatly in the long term. For a diversified world index this leads to a natural model where the discounted index is a time transformed squared Bessel process of dimension four. The inverse of the squared GOP volatility then follows a square root process of dimension four.

Suggested Citation

  • Eckhard Platen, 2003. "Modeling the Volatility and Expected Value of a Diversified World Index," Research Paper Series 103, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:103
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    File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rama Cont & Jose da Fonseca, 2002. "Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
    2. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
    3. Eckhard Platen, 2001. "Arbitrage in Continuous Complete Markets," Research Paper Series 72, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    5. Eckhard Platen, 2003. "Diversified Portfolios in a Benchmark Framework," Research Paper Series 87, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Bruti-Liberati & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen, 2010. "Real-world jump-diffusion term structure models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 23-37.
    2. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2007. "Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices," Research Paper Series 194, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "Local volatility function models under a benchmark approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 197-206.
    4. David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Understanding the Implied Volatility Surface for Options on a Diversified Index," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 55-77, March.
    5. Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen, 2012. "Alternative Term Structure Models for Reviewing Expectations Puzzles," Research Paper Series 305, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Morten Christensen & Eckhard Platen, 2004. "A General Benchmark Model for Stochastic Jump Sizes," Research Paper Series 139, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A Benchmark Approach To Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 131-151.
    8. Truc Le & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "Approximating the Growth Optimal Portfolio with a Diversified World Stock Index," Research Paper Series 180, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Wolfgang Breymann & Leah Kelly & Eckhard Platen, 2005. "Intraday Empirical Analysis and Modeling of Diversified World Stock Indices," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, March.
    10. Shane Miller & Eckhard Platen, 2004. "A Two-Factor Model for Low Interest Rate Regimes," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 107-133, March.
    11. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:08:y:2005:i:08:n:s0219024905003360 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "On the Distributional Characterization of Daily Log-Returns of a World Stock Index," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-38.
    13. Eckhard Platen & Jason West, 2004. "A Fair Pricing Approach to Weather Derivatives," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 23-53, March.
    14. Wolfgang Hardle & Torsten Kleinow & Alexander Korostelev & Camille Logeay & Eckhard Platen, 2008. "Semiparametric diffusion estimation and application to a stock market index," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 81-92.
    15. Hardy Hulley & Martin Schweizer, 2010. "M6 - On Minimal Market Models and Minimal Martingale Measures," Research Paper Series 280, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Hardy Hulley, 2009. "Strict Local Martingales in Continuous Financial Market Models," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 19, June.
    17. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Diversified Portfolios with Jumps in a Benchmark Framework," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, March.
    18. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Capital Asset Pricing for Markets with Intensity Based Jumps," Research Paper Series 143, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    19. Platen, Eckhard, 2006. "Portfolio selection and asset pricing under a benchmark approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 23-29.
    20. David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 2005. "Currency Derivatives Under A Minimal Market Model With Random Scaling," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(08), pages 1157-1177.
    21. repec:wsi:afexxx:v:12:y:2017:i:02:n:s2010495217500105 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Nicola Bruti-Liberati & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen, 2007. "Pricing under the Real-World Probability Measure for Jump-Diffusion Term Structure Models," Research Paper Series 198, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    world index; volatility; benchmark model; growth optimal portfolio; bessel process; square root process;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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