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Intraday Empirical Analysis and Modeling of Diversified World Stock Indices

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Abstract

This paper proposes an approach to the intraday analysis of diversified world stock accumulation indices. The growth optimal portfolio (GOP) is used as reference unit or benchmark in a continuous financial market model. Diversified portfolios, covering the world stock market, are constructed and shown to approximate the GOP, providing the basis for a range of financial applications. The normalized GOP is modeled as a time transformed square root process of dimension four. Its dynamics are empirically verified for several world stock indices. Furthermore, the evolution of the transformed time is modeled as the integral over a rapidly evolving mean-reverting market activity process with deterministic volatility. The empirical findings suggest a rather simple and robust model for a world stock index that reflects the historical evolution, by using only a few readily observable parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Breymann & Leah Kelly & Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Intraday Empirical Analysis and Modeling of Diversified World Stock Indices," Research Paper Series 125, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:125
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    1. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A Benchmark Approach To Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 131-151, January.
    2. W. Breymann & A. Dias & P. Embrechts, 2003. "Dependence structures for multivariate high-frequency data in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14.
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    4. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    5. Leah Kelly & Eckhard Platen & Michael Sorensen, 2003. "Estimating for Discretely Observed Diffusions Using Transform Functions," Research Paper Series 96, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Olivier V. Pictet & Michel M. Dacorogna & Ulrich A. Muller, 1996. "Hill, Bootstrap and Jackknife Estimators for Heavy Tails," Working Papers 1996-12-10, Olsen and Associates.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    8. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Modeling The Volatility And Expected Value Of A Diversified World Index," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 511-529.
    9. Stephen J. Taylor, 1994. "Modeling Stochastic Volatility: A Review And Comparative Study," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 183-204, April.
    10. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
    11. Eckhard Platen, 2001. "Arbitrage in Continuous Complete Markets," Research Paper Series 72, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Platen & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2004. "A Benchmark Approach to Filtering in Finance," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 79-105, March.
    2. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "A Benchmark Framework for Risk Management," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Jiro Akahori & Shigeyoshi Ogawa & Shinzo Watanabe (ed.), Stochastic Processes And Applications To Mathematical Finance, chapter 15, pages 305-335, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2007, January-A.
    4. Eckhard Platen & Jason West & Wolfgang Breymann, 2004. "An Intraday Empirical Analysis of Electricity Price Behaviour," Research Paper Series 140, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Understanding the Implied Volatility Surface for Options on a Diversified Index," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 55-77, March.
    6. Leah Kelly, 2004. "Inference and Intraday Analysis of Diversified World Stock Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2004, January-A.
    7. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Diversified Portfolios with Jumps in a Benchmark Framework," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Modeling The Volatility And Expected Value Of A Diversified World Index," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 511-529.
    9. Leah Kelly, 2004. "Inference and Intraday Analysis of Diversified World Stock Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 24, July-Dece.
    10. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 25, July-Dece.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    world stock index; intraday analysis; growth optimal portfolio; diversified portfolio; market activity; deseasonalization; square root process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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