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Macroeconomic Implications of Near Rational Behavior: an Application to the Italian Phillips Curve


  • Novella Maugeri



New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically conclude that longrun unemployment gravitates around the NAIRU, regardless of the nominal inflation rate. Contrastingly, the model of Akerlof, Dickens and Perry (2000) (ADP) predicts that excessively low inflation may result in a situation where unemployment is high relative to the social optimum. This paper investigates whether ADP-type short- and long-run Phillips Curves may suit the Italian economy. Firstly we estimated a short-run non accelerationist Phillips curve (i.e. where the expected inflation coefficient depends on inflation and it is generally less than unit) on Italian post-war data. Based on these results, we then simulated the long-run Phillips Curve and ran robustness checks by using a rival cointegration approach. We have two main results. First, the Italian short-run Phillips curve is actually non-accelerationist. Second, our estimates indicate that in Italy a long-run trade-o¤ between inflation and unemployment cannot be ruled out at low and moderate inflation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Novella Maugeri, 2010. "Macroeconomic Implications of Near Rational Behavior: an Application to the Italian Phillips Curve," Department of Economics University of Siena 587, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:587

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lundborg, Per & Sacklén, Hans, 2003. "Low-Inflation Targeting and Unemployment Persistence," Working Paper Series 188, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Panel discussion: price stability ; How should long-term monetary policy be determined?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 625-631.
    3. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
    4. Debelle, Guy & Vickery, James, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
    5. Janet L. Yellen & George A. Akerlof, 2006. "Stabilization Policy: A Reconsideration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Sonia Bhalotra, 2006. "Near rationality in wage setting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2513-2521.
    7. Bulkley, George & Myles, Gareth D., 1997. "Bargaining over effort," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 375-384, May.
    8. Bulkley, George & Myles, Gareth D, 1996. "Trade Unions, Efficiency Wages, and Shirking," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 75-88, January.
    9. Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 708-720, September.
    10. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Lebese, Ntsakeseni Letitia, 2016. "Rethinking the current inflation target range in South Africa," MPRA Paper 73912, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Near-rationality; Non-accelerationist Phillips Curve; Natural rate of unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

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