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Information globalization

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Abstract

Common wisdom dictates that uncertainty impedes trade—we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. In equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and the variance in returns to exporting implying that trade can increase or decrease with uncertainty depending on preferences. Under general conditions on preferences, we characterize the importance of these forces using a sufficient statistics approach. Higher uncertainty leads to increases in trade because agents receive improved terms of trade, particularly in states of nature where consumption is most valuable. Trade creates value, in part, by offering a mechanism to share risk and risk sharing is most effective when both parties are uninformed.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaac Baley & Laura Veldkamp & Michael Waugh, 2016. "Information globalization," Economics Working Papers 1529, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1529
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dimitra Petropoulou, 2007. "Information Costs, Networks and Intermediation in International Trade," Economics Series Working Papers 370, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Treb Allen, 2014. "Information Frictions in Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2041-2083, November.
    3. Steinwender, Claudia, 2013. "Information Frictions and the Law of One Price: “When the States and the Kingdom became United”," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1314, CEPREMAP.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Figueiredo, 2017. "Uncertainty in education: The role of communities and social learning," 2017 Meeting Papers 529, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    information asymmetry; globalization; risk sharing; international trade;

    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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