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Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data

  • Chihiro Shimizu

    (Reitaku University; University of British Columbia)

  • Walter Erwin Diewert

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

    (Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan)

  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Economics,University of Tokyo)

We propose a new method to estimate quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using real estate investment trust (REIT) data. Our method is based on the present value approach, but the way the denominator (i.e., the discount rate) and the numerator (i.e., cash flows from properties) are estimated differs from the traditional method. We estimate the discount rate based on the share prices of REITs, which can be regarded as the stock market’s valuation of the set of properties owned by the REITs. As for the numerator, we use rental prices associated only with new rental contracts rather than those associated with all existing contracts. Using a dataset with prices and cash flows for about 500 commercial properties included in Japanese REITs for the period 2003 to 2010, we find that our price index signals turning points much earlier than an appraisal-based price index; specifically, our index peaks in the first quarter of 2007, while the appraisal-based price index exhibits a turnaround only in the third quarter of 2008. Our results suggest that the share prices of REITs provide useful information in constructing commercial property price indexes.

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Paper provided by University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics in its series UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series with number 004.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision: Feb 2013
Handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:004
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University of Tokyo 702 Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan

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  4. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2014. "Alternative Approaches to Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 8, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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  8. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox & Chihiro Shimizu, 2014. "Commercial Property Price Indexes and the System of National Account," Discussion Papers 2014-38, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
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  15. Joseph T.L. Ooi & Seow‐Eng Ong & Poh‐Har Neo, 2011. "The Wealth Effects of Property Acquisitions: Evidence from Japanese and Singaporean REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(3), pages 487-505, 09.
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  18. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2013. "A Conceptual Framework for Commercial Property Price Indexes," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2013-44, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2013.
  19. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "The Paris OECD-IMF Workshop on Real Estate Price Indexes: Conclusions and Future Directions," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-12-12, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
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