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The Interplay Between the Thai and Several Other International Stock Markets

The paper analyses the effect of various international stock market price indices and some relevant macroeconomic variables on the Thai stock market price index, using a GARCH-M model and monthly data from January 1988 to December 2004. It is found, inter alia, that (a) changes in stock market returns in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia in the pre-1997 Asian crisis, and changes in Singapore, the Philippines and Korea in the post-1997 era instantaneously influenced returns in the Thai stock market; (b) changes in the price of crude oil negatively impacted on the Thai stock market only in the pre-Asian crisis period; (c) volatility clustering (i.e. ARCH and GARCH effects) as well as a GARCH-M model were statistically significant only in the pre-1997 era; and (d) stock markets outside the region had no significant immediate impact on monthly aggregate returns in the Thai stock market.

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File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012231.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp06-18.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-18
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html

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  1. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  2. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  3. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
  4. Wenshwo Fang, 2002. "The effects of currency depreciation on stock returns: evidence from five East Asian economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 195-199.
  5. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
  6. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  7. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
  8. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
  9. Bae, Kee-Hong & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1995. "Good news, band news and international spilovers of stock return volatility between Japan and the U.S," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 144-144, May.
  10. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  13. Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998. "A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  14. Bos, Theodore & Ding, David & Fetherston, Thomas A., 1998. "Searching for periods of volatility: A study of the behavior of volatility in Thai stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 295-306, August.
  15. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  16. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock market linkages in emerging markets: implications for international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-106, April.
  17. Y. Liu & Ming-Shiun Pan & Joseph Shieh, 1998. "International transmission of stock price movements: Evidence from the U.S. and five Asian-Pacific markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 59-69, March.
  18. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2002. "Testing for Causality-in-Variance: An Application to the East Asian Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 235-45, July.
  19. In, Francis & Kim, Sangbae & Yoon, Jai Hyung & Viney, Christopher, 2001. "Dynamic interdependence and volatility transmission of Asian stock markets: Evidence from the Asian crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 87-96.
  20. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  21. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
  22. Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 1992. "Stock returns and volatility: An empirical study of the UK stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-59, February.
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