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Macroeconomic effects of lowering South Africa's inflation target: An SVAR analysis

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  • Richard Kima
  • Keagile Lesame

Abstract

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of shifting to a lower inflation target for South Africa, within a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework identified using the Max Share Identification strategy and estimated with Bayesian methods. We find that a decrease of 1% (in terms of percentage points change) in the inflation target leads to output expanding over the next few quarters after an initial muted response, with a peak of about 1.20% after about two years and remains positive and statistically significant for nearly three years after the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Kima & Keagile Lesame, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of lowering South Africa's inflation target: An SVAR analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2025-106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-106
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