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Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest?: Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia

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  • Kalle Hirvonen
  • Elia Machado
  • Andrew M. Simons

Abstract

We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world—Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)—affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not change the risk of violent events, but reduced the likelihood of civil unrest by almost half when compared to non-PSNP districts. These effects are most pronounced during the period 2014-18, coinciding with widespread protests in Amhara and Oromia, the two most populous regions of Ethiopia.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalle Hirvonen & Elia Machado & Andrew M. Simons, 2024. "Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest?: Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2024-78, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-78
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leight, Jessica & Hirvonen, Kalle & Zafar, Sarim, 2024. "The effectiveness of cash and cash plus interventions on livelihoods outcomes: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis," CGIAR Initative Publications 149161, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. repec:fpr:gsspwp:148881 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Logan Cochrane & Y. Tamiru, 2016. "Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program: Power, Politics and Practice," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 649-665, July.
    4. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    5. Cesar Zucco, 2013. "When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002–10," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 810-822, October.
    6. Simeon Djankov & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2010. "Poverty and Civil War: Revisiting the Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1035-1041, November.
    7. Joffe, Marshall M. & Ten Have, Thomas R. & Feldman, Harold I. & Kimmel, Stephen E., 2004. "Model Selection, Confounder Control, and Marginal Structural Models: Review and New Applications," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 58, pages 272-279, November.
    8. Kalle Hirvonen & John Hoddinott, 2021. "Beneficiary Views on Cash and In-Kind Payments: Evidence from Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 398-413.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rute Martins Caeiro & Rachel Sabates-Wheeler & Patricia Justino, 2025. "Social protection in times of conflict: Evidence from Ethiopia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2025-9, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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