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China, India, Brazil and South Africa in the World Economy: Engines of Growth?

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  • Nayyar, Deepak

Abstract

This paper attempts to analyse the economic implications of the rise of China, India, Brazil and South Africa, for developing countries situated in the wider context of the world economy. It examines the possible impact of their rapid growth on industrialized countries and developing countries, which could be complementary or competitive and, on balance, positive or negative. In doing so, it considers the main channels of transmission, to focus on international trade, investment, finance and migration. The essential question is whether, in times to come, these four countries could be the new engines of growth for the world economy. The answer is that rapid growth in China already supports growth elsewhere, so far primarily as a market for exports, while India and Brazil have the potential to provide similar support, but South Africa does not yet exhibit such a potential. In future, these countries could also provide resources for investment and technologies for productivity. The transformation and catch-up could span half a century or longer. Even so, rapid growth in these large emerging economies is already beginning to change the balance of economic power in the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Nayyar, Deepak, 2008. "China, India, Brazil and South Africa in the World Economy: Engines of Growth?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2008/05, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2008-05
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    File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/dp2008-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jenkins, Rhys & Peters, Enrique Dussel & Moreira, Mauricio Mesquita, 2008. "The Impact of China on Latin America and the Caribbean," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-253, February.
    2. Serra, Narcis & Stiglitz, Joseph E. (ed.), 2008. "The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199534098.
    3. Deepak Nayyar, 2006. "Globalisation, history and development: a tale of two centuries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 137-159, January.
    4. Kaplinsky, Raphael & Morris, Mike, 2008. "Do the Asian Drivers Undermine Export-oriented Industrialization in SSA," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 254-273, February.
    5. Deepak Nayyar, 2008. "The Internationalization of Firms From India: Investment, Mergers and Acquisitions," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 111-131.
    6. Robert Rowthorn, 2006. "The Renaissance Of China And India: Implications For The Advanced Economies," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 182, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    7. Deepak Nayyar, 2008. "Learning to Unlearn from Development," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 259-280.
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    Keywords

    China; India; Brazil; South Africa; growth; development; history; trade; investment; finance; migration;

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