IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unp/wpaper/201503.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing Indonesia’s Long Run Growth: The Role of Total Factor Productivity and Human Capital

Author

Listed:
  • Armida Alisjahbana

    (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

  • Viktor Pirmana

    (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

Abstract

This paper revisits Indonesia’s long run growth trajectory with particular emphasis on the contribution of human capital accumulation and Total Factor Productivity for the period 2000-2035. The study utilizes the growth accounting framework that estimates contribution of growth in capital stock, human capital, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the period after Indonesia’s crisis of 1997- 1998. This study extends an earlier study by Alisjahbana (2009) in methodology, and emphasis in the role of human capital to long term growth trajectory. The period of analysis is concentrated from the year 2000 onwards with the following periodization: 2000-2004 (economic stabilization period); 2005-2009 (President SBY First Administration); 2010-2014 (President SBY Second Administration) and the overall period from 2000-2014. Based on the earlier study, it is expected that the pattern of sources of growth post crisis will be enhanced, in which TFP growth and the role of human capital have become more prominent. Results of the sources of economic growth during the 2000-2014 periods are used to project Indonesia’s long run growth trajectory until 2035. The study utilizes the most recent relevant data sets such as Indonesia’s population projection 2010- 2035. The study also benefits from the most current government long-term policy direction in human resources development as well as human capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Armida Alisjahbana & Viktor Pirmana, 2015. "Assessing Indonesia’s Long Run Growth: The Role of Total Factor Productivity and Human Capital," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201503, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Oct 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ceds.feb.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/201503.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudio E. Montenegro & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2014. "Comparable Estimates of Returns to Schooling Around the World," Working Papers wp390, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    2. D. S.P. Rao & Bart van Ark (ed.), 2013. "World Economic Performance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13753.
    3. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
    4. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    5. Blaise Gadanecz & Kaushik Jayaram, 2009. "Measures of financial stability - a review," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring financial innovation and its impact", Basel, 26-27 August 2008, volume 31, pages 365-380, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    7. Armida Alisjahbana, 2009. "Revisiting Indonesia’s Sources of Economic Growth and Its Projection Towards 2030," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200905, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2009.
    8. Nadežda Sinenko & Deniss Titarenko & Mikus Arinš, 2013. "The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 85-110, December.
    9. Miroslav Misina & Greg Tkacz, 2009. "Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 95-122, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nadežda Sinenko & Deniss Titarenko & Mikus Arinš, 2013. "The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 85-110, December.
    2. Sadia Babar & Rashid Latief & Sumaira Ashraf & Sania Nawaz, 2019. "Financial Stability Index for the Financial Sector of Pakistan," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    4. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    5. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    6. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    7. Mirna Dumičić, 2015. "Financial Stability Indicators – the Case of Croatia," Working Papers 43, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    8. Tang, Pan & Tang, Tiantian & Lu, Chennuo, 2024. "Predicting systemic financial risk with interpretable machine learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    10. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Bu, Ya & Du, Xin & Li, Hui & Yu, Xinghui & Wang, Yuting, 2023. "Research on the FinTech risk early warning based on the MS-VAR model: An empirical analysis in China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    13. Malgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Pawel Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2017. "Role of Foreign Capital in Stability of Banking Sectors in CESEE Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(6), pages 492-511, October.
    14. Hayet Abbad & Mohamed Achouche & Yamina Tadjeddine, 2015. "Evaluation du système financier Algérien : Construction d’un indice agrégé de stabilité bancaire," Working Papers hal-04141394, HAL.
    15. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2010. "Forecasting The Romanian Financial System Stability Using A Stochastic Simulation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-98, March.
    16. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.
    17. Aboura, Sofiane & van Roye, Björn, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: An application to France," Kiel Working Papers 1834, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung & Conseil d'Analyse Écon (ed.), 2010. "Monitoring economic performance, quality of life and sustainability. Joint report as requested by the Franco-German Ministerial Council," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75366.
    19. Mohammad Dulal Miah & Muhammad Shafiullah & Md. Samsul Alam, 2024. "The effect of financial stress on renewable energy consumption: evidence from US data," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 26623-26646, October.
    20. Fuchun Li & Hongyu Xiao, 2016. "Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach," Staff Working Papers 16-21, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Total Factor Productivity; Human Capital; Indonesia 2035;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Arief Anshory Yusuf (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lppadid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.