Bayesian Inference and Forecasting in the Stationary Bilinear Model
A stationary bilinear (SB) model can be used to describe processes with a time-varying degree of persistence that depends on past shocks. An example of such a process is inflation. This study develops methods for Bayesian inference, model comparison, and forecasting in the SB model. Using monthly U.K. inflation data, we find that the SB model outperforms the random walk and first order autoregressive AR(1) models in terms of root mean squared forecast errors for both the one-step-ahead and the multi-step-ahead out-of-sample forecast. In addition, the SB model is superior to these two models in terms of predictive likelihood for 208 out of 243 forecast observations. In particular, compared with a lower order autoregressive AR model, the SB model is much better at predicting the inflation observations during the financial crisis and immediately after.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Norwich NR4 7TI|
Phone: 44 1603 591131
Fax: +44(0)1603 4562592
Web page: http://www.uea.ac.uk/economics
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Jessica Pointer, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2010.
"Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of asset returns,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 216-230, April.
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2008. "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of assets returns," Working Paper Series 0969, European Central Bank.
- Brunner, Allan D. & Hess, Gregory D., 1995. "Potential problems in estimating bilinear time-series models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 663-681, May.
- Charemza W.W. & M. Lifshits & S. Makarova, 2002.
"Conditional testing for unit-root bilinearity in financial time series: some theoretical and empirical results,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2002
251, Society for Computational Economics.
- Charemza, Wojciech W. & Lifshits, Mikhail & Makarova, Svetlana, 2005. "Conditional testing for unit-root bilinearity in financial time series: some theoretical and empirical results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 63-96, January.
- J. D. Byers & D. A. Peel, 1995. "Bilinear quadratic ARCH and volatility spillovers in inter-war exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(7), pages 215-219.
- Francq, Christian & Makarova, Svetlana & Zakoi[diaeresis]an, Jean-Michel, 2008. "A class of stochastic unit-root bilinear processes: Mixing properties and unit-root test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 312-326, January.
- Wojciech Charemza & Yuriy Kharin & Vladislav Maevskiy, 2012. "Bilinear forecast risk assessment for non-systematic inflation: Theory and evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/22, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uea:aepppr:2012_55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Theodore Turocy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.