IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/udt/wpecon/2025_07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Incredible Taylor Principle

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Andrés Neumeyer
  • Juan Pablo Nicolini

Abstract

We discuss the extent to which the Taylor principle can solve the indeterminacy of equilibria in economies in which the monetary authority follows an interest rate feedback rule. We first show that only the limiting behavior of the feedback rule matters, so identifying in the data if the Taylor principle holds cannot be achieved, above and beyond the arguments specified in Cochrane (2008). Second, we show that the competitive equilibrium under interest rate feedback rules is nominally determined if the Taylor principle holds and, in addition, two ad-hoc restrictions on equilibrium are satisfied. These require equilibrium inflation to be bounded and equilibria to be locally unique. Finally, we show that the Taylor principle is strongly time inconsistent, in a sense we make very precise.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Andrés Neumeyer & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2024. "The Incredible Taylor Principle," Department of Economics Working Papers 2025_07, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2025_07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/inaohcbhyaa4vk49o383m/IncredibleTaylorRule.pdf?rlkey=6ed5tr3w2ve2bzltqetcief5f&e=1&st=qtdla87q&dl=0
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Atkeson & Varadarajan V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2010. "Sophisticated Monetary Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 47-89.
    2. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 634-646, 04-05.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Fernando Alvarez & Patrick J. Kehoe & Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, 2004. "The Time Consistency of Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 541-567, March.
    5. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    6. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    7. Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2014. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 862-875, December.
    8. Fernando Alvarez & Martin Beraja & Martín Gonzalez-Rozada & Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, 2019. "From Hyperinflation to Stable Prices: Argentina’s Evidence on Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 451-505.
    9. Tack Yun, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Relative Price Distortions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 89-109, March.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ascari, Guido & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a trend inflation world: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1852-1867.
    2. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    3. Best, Gabriela & Hur, Joonyoung, 2019. "Bad luck, bad policy, and learning? A Markov-switching approach to understanding postwar U.S. macroeconomic dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 55-78.
    4. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    5. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Michael Wickens, 2015. "Revisiting the Great Moderation: Policy or Luck?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 197-223, April.
    6. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2017-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    9. Jean Barthélemy & Magali Marx, 2016. "Solving Endogenous Regime Switching Models," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393181, HAL.
    10. Ales Marsal & Katrin Rabitsch & Lorant Kaszab, 2023. "From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp350, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    12. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2016. "Kinked Demand Curves, the Natural Rate Hypothesis, and Macroeconomic Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 240-257, April.
    14. Martínez-García Enrique, 2018. "Modeling time-variation over the business cycle (1960–2017): an international perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-25, December.
    15. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
    16. Mengus, Eric & Barthelemy, Jean, 2017. "Monetary Rules, Determinacy and Limited Enforcement," HEC Research Papers Series 1202, HEC Paris, revised 11 May 2019.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/644vfdaim38frrvbit4u0bh0ha is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.
    19. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2018. "Why Has Inflation Persistence Declined?," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, April.
    20. C. Richard Higgins & Irfan A. Qureshi, 2025. "Changes in central bank leadership and inflation dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(4), pages 1440-1473, April.
    21. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    22. Choi, Jinho & Hur, Joonyoung, 2015. "An examination of macroeconomic fluctuations in Korea exploiting a Markov-switching DSGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-199.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udt:wpecon:2025_07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: María Cecilia Lafuente (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deutdar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.