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Crecimiento, Empleo e Impuestos al Trabajo: Chile 1998-2001

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  • Raphael Bergoeing
  • Felipe Morandé

Abstract

Desde 1984 y hasta 1997, la economía chilena experimentó un crecimiento per cápita promedio de 5,4 por ciento, lo que la ubica dentro de las economías exitosas del mundo de las últimas dos décadas. Sin embargo, entre 1998 y 2001 esa tasa cayó bruscamente a 1,2 por ciento por año. Este artículo analiza el rol de la acumulación de factores y la eficiencia en su uso durante los últimos 20 años en Chile para entender la evolución del producto, en el contexto de un modelo de crecimiento neoclásico simple. El análisis sugiere que, a diferencia de lo ocurrido durante la crisis de comienzos de los años 80s y durante el proceso de recuperación y fuerte crecimiento económico que le siguió hasta 1998, en los que la eficiencia en el uso de factores fue el principal motor de la actividad económica, durante los últimos tres años sería la caída en el empleo el principal elemento detrás de la declinación en el ritmo de crecimiento de la economía. Esta caída en el empleo se vincula a un encarecimiento del factor trabajo equivalente a un impuesto de 6,75% que habría ocurrido entre 1999 y 2001, hipotéticamente asociado al debate sobre una reforma laboral en ese período que incrementa el costo de despido.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé, 2002. "Crecimiento, Empleo e Impuestos al Trabajo: Chile 1998-2001," Working Papers wp193, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2005. "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in a Emerging Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 7, pages 221-260 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    4. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1994. "A progress report on business cycle models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-16.
    5. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott(), 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Gallego & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2005. "General Equilibrium Dynamics of Foreign Shocks ans Policy Changes in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 4, pages 113-162 Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Julio J. Guzman, 2016. "Social protection during recessions: evidence from Chile," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 348-368, October.
    3. Cerda, Rodrigo A., 2008. "The Chilean pension reform: A model to follow?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 541-558.
    4. Juan Pablo Medina & Alberto Naudon, 2011. "Labor Market Dyncamics in Chile: the Role of Terms of Trade Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 637, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé & Facundo Piguillem, 2005. "Labor Market Distortions, Employment and Growth: The Recent Chilean Experience," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 12, pages 395-414 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Rómulo Chumacero & Ricardo Paredes, 2002. "Does Centralization Imply Better Targeting?: Evaluating Emergency Employment Programs in Chile," Working Papers wp199, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    7. Víctor O. Lima & Ricardo D. Paredes, 2007. "The dynamics of the labor markets in Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 34(2 Year 20), pages 163-183, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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