IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Co-movements in terms of trade volatility in land-abundant countries

  • María Virginia Mattheus
  • Alberto Martín Díaz Cafferata
Registered author(s):

    We conjecture that extreme land abundant endowment constitutes a structural restriction driving sectoral specialization and terms of trade volatility. We estimate and compare several volatility indicators for Argentina, Australia and New Zealand in 1870-2009 finding co-movements, structural breaks in variability, significant cross correlations between TOT cycles, and in some cases heteroskedasticity. If “first nature” land-abundance is a long-term structural restriction, development policies for this type of economies must balance reductions in TOT volatility through export diversification (at rising costs) and a combination of efficiency improvements and internal flexibility to manage volatility effects.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social in its series Working Papers with number 07/11.

    in new window

    Length: 42 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:uae:wpaper:0711
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Plaza de la Victoria, 2 C.P. 28802, Alcalá de Henares
    Phone: (00 34) 91 885 52 25
    Fax: (00 34) 91 885 52 11
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    4. Hildegart Ahumada & María Lorena Garegnani, 2000. "Assesing HP Filter Performance for Argentina and U.S. Macro Aggregates," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 257-284, November.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    6. Mundlak, Yair & Cavallo, Domingo & Domenech, Roberto, 1989. "Agriculture and economic growth in Argentina, 1913-84:," Research reports 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    8. Mundlak, Yair & Cavallo, Domingo & Domenech, Roberto, 1989. "Agriculture and economic growth in Argentina, 1913-84: supplement," Research reports 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
    10. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    11. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    12. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
    13. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2007. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 114, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 24 Apr 2007.
    14. Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2008. "International Institutions and the Volatility of International Trade," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(04), pages 621-652, October.
    15. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    16. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    17. Kenen, Peter B, 1969. "Round Table on Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 362-64, May.
    18. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. C.B. Schedvin, 1990. "Staples and regions of Pax Britannica," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 43(4), pages 533-559, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uae:wpaper:0711. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Suarez)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.