IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Terms of trade cycles in extreme land abundant countries, 1870-2009. Spectral analysis

  • José Luis Arrufat
  • Alberto Martín Díaz Cafferata
  • José Antonio Viceconte
Registered author(s):

    Spectral analysis is applied to the empirical identification of terms of trade cycles, in the secular evolution, 1870-2009, of a group of extreme-landabundant countries: Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Uruguay. Estimates of the power density spectrum functions produce statistically significant spectral peaks associated with long-run cycle periods between 24 and 56 years, with a mode of about 28 years for all five countries, and the variance decomposition shows that these long-run cycles account for a very substantial fraction, between 68% and 83%, of the TOT total variance. These results are very robust to changes in the choice of truncation lag, as well as to the type of spectral window (Parzen and Bartlett) used in the estimations.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social in its series Working Papers with number 05/11.

    in new window

    Length: 42 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:uae:wpaper:0511
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Plaza de la Victoria, 2 C.P. 28802, Alcalá de Henares
    Phone: (00 34) 91 885 52 25
    Fax: (00 34) 91 885 52 11
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2008. "International Institutions and the Volatility of International Trade," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(04), pages 621-652, October.
    3. Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
    4. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-80, June.
    5. Pope, David, 1984. "Rostow's Kondratieff Cycle in Australia," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(03), pages 729-753, September.
    6. C.B. Schedvin, 1990. "Staples and regions of Pax Britannica," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 43(4), pages 533-559, November.
    7. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Kenen, Peter B, 1969. "Round Table on Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 362-64, May.
    10. Mundlak, Yair & Cavallo, Domingo & Domenech, Roberto, 1989. "Agriculture and economic growth in Argentina, 1913-84: supplement," Research reports 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
    12. Mundlak, Yair & Cavallo, Domingo & Domenech, Roberto, 1989. "Agriculture and economic growth in Argentina, 1913-84:," Research reports 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
    15. Hildegart Ahumada & María Lorena Garegnani, 2000. "Assesing HP Filter Performance for Argentina and U.S. Macro Aggregates," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 257-284, November.
    16. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uae:wpaper:0511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Suarez)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.