Terms of trade cycles in extreme land abundant countries, 1870-2009. Spectral analysis
Spectral analysis is applied to the empirical identification of terms of trade cycles, in the secular evolution, 1870-2009, of a group of extreme-landabundant countries: Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Uruguay. Estimates of the power density spectrum functions produce statistically significant spectral peaks associated with long-run cycle periods between 24 and 56 years, with a mode of about 28 years for all five countries, and the variance decomposition shows that these long-run cycles account for a very substantial fraction, between 68% and 83%, of the TOT total variance. These results are very robust to changes in the choice of truncation lag, as well as to the type of spectral window (Parzen and Bartlett) used in the estimations.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (00 34) 91 885 52 25
Fax: (00 34) 91 885 52 11
Web page: http://www.iaes.es
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994.
"Non-oil commodity prices: Cyclical weakness or secular decline?,"
13871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
- Peter Wickham & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Commodity Prices; Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Working Papers 94/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2004.
"International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence,"
- Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
- Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2002. "International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence," Working Papers 2002-17, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994.
"Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
- Pope, David, 1984. "Rostow's Kondratieff Cycle in Australia," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(03), pages 729-753, September.
- Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mundlak, Yair & Cavallo, Domingo & Domenech, Roberto, 1989. "Agriculture and economic growth in Argentina, 1913-84: supplement," Research reports 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Kenen, Peter B, 1969. "Round Table on Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 362-64, May.
- Mundlak, Yair & Cavallo, Domingo & Domenech, Roberto, 1989. "Agriculture and economic growth in Argentina, 1913-84:," Research reports 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Hildegart Ahumada & María Lorena Garegnani, 2000. "Assesing HP Filter Performance for Argentina and U.S. Macro Aggregates," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 257-284, November.
- Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2008. "International Institutions and the Volatility of International Trade," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(04), pages 621-652, October.
- Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
- Lutz, Matthias G, 1999. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 44-57, February.
- C.B. Schedvin, 1990. "Staples and regions of Pax Britannica," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 43(4), pages 533-559, November.
- Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-80, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uae:wpaper:0511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Suarez)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.