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Rostow's Kondratieff Cycle in Australia

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  • Pope, David

Abstract

The turn of economic events in the early 1970s correlates with a revival of ideas about the existence of long swings in economic development. The subject of Kondratieff cycles has attracted the pens of social scientists of very different persuasions. This paper draws on Walt W. Rostow's interpretation—with its emphasis on the role of exporters of food and raw materials in the world economy—to explore Australian long waves over the last 110 years. I conclude that the case for their existence is not confirmed and moreover that Rostow's cycle-mechanics offer a doubtful explication of movements in the Australian series.

Suggested Citation

  • Pope, David, 1984. "Rostow's Kondratieff Cycle in Australia," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 729-753, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:44:y:1984:i:03:p:729-753_03
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    Cited by:

    1. Orley M. Amos, Jr., 1989. "An Inquiry into the Causes of Increasing Regional Income Inequality in The United States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-12, Spring.
    2. De Long, J Bradford, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1138-1154, December.
    3. José Luis Arrufat & Alberto Martín Díaz Cafferata & José Antonio Viceconte, 2011. "Terms of trade cycles in extreme land abundant countries, 1870-2009. Spectral analysis," Working Papers 05/11, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    4. Steven G. Cochrane & Daniel R. Vining Jr., 1988. "Population Migration in the Developed World: Some Further Comments," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 11(3), pages 277-278, December.
    5. J. Bradford De Long, 1987. "Have Productivity Levels Converged? Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare in the Very Long Run," NBER Working Papers 2419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David Pope, 1991. "Long Waves and the Crash of ‘87," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(2), pages 158-167, June.

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