IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tse/wpaper/22141.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Beliefs about the Economic Impact of Immigration

Author

Listed:
  • Tremewan, James

Abstract

The public's beliefs about the economic impact of immigration on host nations' economies is significantly more negative than both the beliefs of economists, and what much of the empirical evidence would suggest. In an attempt to explain this disparity, and the wide range of beliefs about what should largely be a matter of fact, I develop a simple model of belief formation based on the concept of motivated reasoning: when coming to a conclusion people are influenced by the desire to come to a particular conclusion (a directional goal) and by the desire for their conclusion to be justified by evidence (an accuracy goal). This gives agents an incentive to manipulate their beliefs. The model yields several testable hypotheses: positive beliefs about the economic impact of immigrants should be negatively associated with a preference for living in an ethnically homogeneous society; the effect of education depends crucially on the aforementioned preference; finally, beliefs should reflect the probability of receiving supporting evidence. An empirical analysis using the European Social Survey 2002/2003 data finds support for all three hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Tremewan, James, 2009. "Beliefs about the Economic Impact of Immigration," TSE Working Papers 09-019, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/medias/doc/wp/bee/wp_bee_19_2009.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, R.J. & Sala-i-Martin, X., 1991. "Regional Growth and Migration: a Japan - U.S. Comparaison," Papers 650, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    2. Jennifer Hunt & Marjolaine Gauthier-Loiselle, 2010. "How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 31-56, April.
    3. Rachel M. Friedberg & Jennifer Hunt, 1995. "The Impact of Immigrants on Host Country Wages, Employment and Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    4. Charles S. Taber & Milton Lodge, 2006. "Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 755-769, July.
    5. Edward C. Norton & Hua Wang & Chunrong Ai, 2004. "Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 4(2), pages 154-167, June.
    6. Dustmann Christian & Preston Ian P, 2007. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
    7. Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj & Munch, Jakob R. & Schroll, Sanne & Skaksen, Jan Rose, 2006. "Attitudes Towards Immigration: Does Economic Self-Interest Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 2283, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. David Blanchflower & Jumana Saleheen & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy," Discussion Papers 17, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    9. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2007. "Educated Preferences: Explaining Attitudes Toward Immigration in Europe," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 399-442, April.
    10. David Blanchflower & Jumana Saleheen & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "The impact of the recent migration from Eastern Europe on the UK economy," Discussion Papers 17, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    11. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 211-211.
    12. Bryan Caplan, 2002. "Systematically Biased Beliefs About Economics: Robust Evidence of Judgemental Anomalies from the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 433-458, April.
    13. Barro, Robert T. & Sala-I-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Regional growth and migration: A Japan-United States comparison," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 312-346, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2006. "Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants: Welfare-State Determinants Across Countries," Working Papers gueconwpa~06-06-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    3. Pouliakas, Konstantinos & Roberts, Deborah & Balamou, Eudokia & Psaltopoulos, Dimitris, 2008. "Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and the Wage Distribution: A CGE Analysis of Three EU Regions," MPRA Paper 14157, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Martin Kahanec & Mariola Pytliková, 2017. "The economic impact of east–west migration on the European Union," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 407-434, August.
    5. Muysken, Joan & Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2012. "The impact of Medium-Skilled immigration: A general equilibrium approach," MERIT Working Papers 2012-055, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. repec:pra:mprapa:47899 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sucharita Ghosh & Camilla Mastromarco, 2013. "Cross-border Economic Activities, Human Capital and Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis for OECD Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 761-785, June.
    8. Gianluca Orefice, 2010. "Skilled Migration and Economic Performances: Evidence from OECD Countries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(IV), pages 781-820, December.
    9. Joan Muysken & Ehsan Vallizadeh & Thomas Ziesemer, 2015. "Migration, Unemployment, and Skill Downgrading," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 403-451, April.
    10. Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2013. "Migration, unemployment, and skill downgrading : a specific-factors approach," IAB-Discussion Paper 201313, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J. & Margalit, Yotam, 2015. "Do concerns about labor market competition shape attitudes toward immigration? New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 193-207.
    12. Marfouk, Abdeslam, 2013. "Préjugés et fausses idées sur l’immigration et les immigrés, vecteurs de discrimination en matière d’accès à l’emploi [false ideas about immigrants and immigration and discrimination in labor marke," MPRA Paper 47989, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Matthias Schündeln, 2014. "Are Immigrants More Mobile Than Natives? Evidence From Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 70-95, January.
    14. Konstantinos Pouliakas & Deborah Roberts & Eudokia Balamou & Dimitris Psaltopoulos, 2014. "Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and Wage Distribution: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of Three European Union Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 318-338, February.
    15. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.
    16. Bonin, Holger & Krause-Pilatus, Annabelle & Rinne, Ulf & Brücker, Herbert, 2020. "Wirtschaftliche Effekte der EU-Arbeitskräftemobilität in den Ziel- und Herkunftsländern," IZA Research Reports 102, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Nikolaj Malchow-Møller & Jakob Munch & Sanne Schroll & Jan Skaksen, 2009. "Explaining Cross-Country Differences in Attitudes Towards Immigration in the EU-15," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 91(3), pages 371-390, May.
    18. Bryan Caplan & Stephen Miller, 2012. "Positive versus normative economics: what’s the connection? Evidence from the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy and the General Social Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 241-261, January.
    19. Fischer, Lorenz Benedikt & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2018. "The more the merrier? Migration and convergence among European regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-114.
    20. Jiří Balcar & Jan Šulák, 2021. "Urban environmental quality and out-migration intentions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(3), pages 579-607, June.
    21. Katarzyna Budnik, 2008. "Search Equilibrium with Migration: the Case of Poland," NBP Working Papers 45, Narodowy Bank Polski.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tsetofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.