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The welfare cost of ignoring the beta

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  • Gollier, Christian

Abstract

Because of risk aversion, any sensible investment valuation system should value less projects that contribute more to the aggregate risk. In theory, this is done by adjusting discount rates to consumption betas. But in reality, most public institutions use a dis-count rate that is rather insensitive to the risk profile of their investment projects. The economic consequences of the implied misallocation of capital are severe. I calibrate a Lucas model in which the investment opportunity set contains a constellation of projects with different expected returns and risk profiles. The model matches the traditional finan-cial and macro moments, together with the observed heterogeneity of assets’ risk profiles. The welfare loss of using a single discount rate is equivalent to a permanent reduction in consumption that lies somewhere between 15% and 45% depending upon which single discount rate is used.

Suggested Citation

  • Gollier, Christian, 2024. "The welfare cost of ignoring the beta," TSE Working Papers 24-1556, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:129648
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    2. Gollier, Christian & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Zheng, Jiakun, 2023. "The discounting premium puzzle: Survey evidence from professional economists," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Frédéric Cherbonnier & Christian Gollier & Aude Pommeret, 2025. "Stress discounting," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 219-243, December.
    4. Sophie Zhou & Frederick van der Ploeg & Rick van der Ploeg, 2023. "Structural Change and the Climate Risk Premium during the Green Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 10840, CESifo.
    5. Spackman, Michael, 2021. "Social discounting and the equity premium," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111488, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Frikk Nesje & Paolo G. Piacquadio & Paolo Giovanni Piacquadio, 2025. "Intergenerational Discounting and Inequality," CESifo Working Paper Series 11630, CESifo.
    7. Dato, Prudence & Dioha, Michael & Hessou, Hélyoth & Houenou, Boris & Mukhaya, Brian & Okyere, Michael Adu & Odarno, Lily, 2025. "Computation of weighted average cost of capital (WACC) in the power sector for African countries and the implications for country-specific electricity technology cost," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 397(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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