Menarche, Marriage Age, Education, and Employment in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia

Child marriage is still relatively common in low-income countries, with 40% of Sub-Saharan African and 25% of Middle Eastern girls marrying before the age of 18. Case studies in individual countries have shown that delaying marriage for girls is associated with more years of schooling and a higher probability of employment. Many of these studies have used menarche, the age of a girl's first menstrual period, as an instrument for marriage age to avoid omitted variable bias. This paper tests and demonstrates the external validity of these case studies across 12 countries using data from demographic health surveys. We show that age at menarche is a potential instrument for marriage age in the pooled sample and stronger in countries with higher rates of child marriage. The results support previous findings that delayed marriage is associated with a higher number of years of school completed and probability of employment, with a few exceptions where average marriage age is higher. This work adds to the evidence base for policy to increase marriage age for the long-term well-being of women in low-income countries.