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An Econometric Analysis of SARS and Avian Flu on International Tourist Arrivals to Asia

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Listed:
  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Bing-Wen Huang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Hsiao-I Kuo

    (Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology)

  • Chi-Chung Chen

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

Abstract

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael McAleer & Bing-Wen Huang & Hsiao-I Kuo & Chi-Chung Chen & Chia-Lin Chang, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of SARS and Avian Flu on International Tourist Arrivals to Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-649, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf649
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf649.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    2. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    3. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    4. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asai, Manabu & Caporin, Massimiliano & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using block structure multivariate stochastic volatility models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-50.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-735, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Chia-Ling Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Interdependence of International Tourism Demand and Volatility in Leading ASEAN Destinations," CARF F-Series CARF-F-190, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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