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The Price of Euro: Evidence from Sovereign Debt Markets

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  • Erik Makela

    (Department of Economics, University of Turku)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to figure out how the Economic and Monetary Union in Europe (EMU) has affected on its member's sovereign risk-premiums and long-term government bond yields. In order to estimate the effect, this paper utilizes synthetic control method. Contrary to the popular belief, this paper finds that the majority of member countries did not receive economic gains from EMU in sovereign debt markets. Synthetic counterfactual analysis finds strong evidence that Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and Netherlands have paid positive and substantial euro-premium in their 10-year government bonds since the adoption of single currency. After the latest financial crisis, government bond yields have been higher in all member countries compared to the situation that would have been without monetary unification. This paper concludes that from the sovereign borrowing viewpoint, it would be beneficial for a country to maintain its own currency and monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Makela, 2014. "The Price of Euro: Evidence from Sovereign Debt Markets," Discussion Papers 90, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp90
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    2. Toni Gravelle, 1999. "Liquidity of the Government of Canada Securities Market: Stylised Facts and Some Market Microstructure Comparisons to the United States Treasury Market," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market Liquidity: Research Findings and Selected Policy Implications, volume 11, pages 1-37, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    4. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    5. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    6. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 12, pages 297-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    8. von Hagen, Jurgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign Risk Premia in the European Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Synthetic Control Method; Monetary Union; Sovereign Risk; Government Bond Yield;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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