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What are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks? Evidence from Dollarized Countries

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  • Tim Willems

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

Traditional ways of analyzing the effects of monetary policy shocks via structural vector autoregressions require the use of unrealistic identifying assumptions: they either do not allow for a response of output and prices on impact of the shock, or they exclude contemporaneous values of these variables from the monetary authority's information set. This paper relaxes these incredible restrictions by exploiting a convenient natural setting, namely the fact that we can use data from dollarized countries. The fact that non-monetary US shocks do not seem to be transmitted to these countries, has the additional advantage that it makes the exercise less vulnerable to potential misidentification of the US monetary policy shock. The results obtained in this way suggest that prices fall quite rapidly after a monetary contraction. Consistent with this finding, the effects of monetary policy shocks on output seem to be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Willems, 2010. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks? Evidence from Dollarized Countries," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-099/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 25 Mar 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20100099
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy effects; Price puzzle; Structural VARs; Identification; Block exogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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