IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Should Macroeconomic Policy Makers Consider Parameter Covariances?

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Hans M. Amman

    ()

    (Eco, U. of Amsterdam)

  • David A. Kendrick

    ()

    (Eco, U. of Texas)

Abstract

Many macroeconomic policy exercises consider the mean values of parameter estimates but do not use the variances and covariances. One can argue that the uncertainty of these parameter estimates is sufficiently small that it can safely be ignored. Or one can take the position that this kind of uncertainty cannot be avoided no matter what one does. Thus it is just as well to ignore it while making policy decisions. In this paper we address both of these positions in the presence of learning and find that they are unconvincing. To the contrary, we find evidence that the potential damage from ignoring the variances and covariances of the parameter estimates is substantial and that taking them into account can improve matters. Citation Copyright 1999 by Kluwer Academic Publishers.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.eco.utexas.edu/Ecopapers/wp9701.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The University of Texas at Austin, Center for Applied Research in Economics in its series CARE Working Papers with number 9701.

as
in new window

Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1997
Handle: RePEc:tex:carewp:9701
Note: None
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Austin, Texas 78712

Phone: +1 (512) 471-3211
Fax: +1 (512) 471-3510
Web page: http://www.utexas.edu/cola/depts/economics/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Macroeconomics; learning; stochastic optimization; numerical experiments;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
  • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Pohjola, Matti T., 1981. "Uncertainty and the vigour of policy Some implications of quadratic preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 299-305, November.
  2. Shupp, Franklin R., 1976. "Uncertainty and optimal stabilization policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 243-253, October.
  3. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1996. "Monetary Policy as a Process of Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 689-702, September.
  4. Craine, Roger, 1979. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-83, February.
  5. Roger Craine & Arthur Havenner & Peter Tinsley, 1976. "Optimal Macroeconomic Control Policies," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 2, pages 191-203 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996. "Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
  7. Chow, Gregory C, 1973. "Effect of Uncertainty on Optimal Control Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 632-645, October.
  8. Franklin R. Shupp, 1972. "Uncertainty and Stabilization Policies for a Nonlinear Macroeconomic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 94-110.
  9. Amman, Hans M & Kendrick, David A, 1995. "Nonconvexities in Stochastic Control Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 455-475, May.
  10. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1975. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Instrument in a Linear Economic Model with Stochastic Coefficients," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 51-80, February.
  11. Kendrick, David, 1982. "Caution and probing in a macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 149-170, November.
  12. Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A., 1994. "Active learning Monte Carlo results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 119-124, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Blueschke-Nikolaeva, V. & Blueschke, D. & Neck, R., 2012. "Optimal control of nonlinear dynamic econometric models: An algorithm and an application," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3230-3240.
  2. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
  3. Mercado, P. Ruben & Kendrick, David A., 2000. "Caution in macroeconomic policy: uncertainty and the relative intensity of policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 37-41, July.
  4. P. Ruben Mercado, 2004. "The Timing of Uncertainty and the Intensity of Policy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 303-313, 06.
  5. D.A. Kendrick & H.M. Amman, 2011. "A Taylor Rule for Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 11-17, Utrecht School of Economics.
  6. Pedro Francisco Páez, 2005. "Are the Washington Consensus Policies Sustainable? Game Theoretical Assessment for the Case of Ecuador," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2005_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  7. David Kendrick & Hans Amman, 2006. "A Classification System for Economic Stochastic Control Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 453-481, June.
  8. D.A. Kendrick & H.M. Amman & M.P. Tucci, 2008. "Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models," Working Papers 08-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
  9. Fidel Gonzalez, 2008. "Optimal Policy Response with Control Parameter and Intercept Covariance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 1-20, February.
  10. P. Mercado & David Kendrick, 2006. "Parameter Uncertainty and Policy Intensity: Some Extensions and Suggestions for Further Work," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 483-496, June.
  11. Reinhard Neck & Gottfried Haber & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2010. "Optimal Deterministic and Stochastic Macroeconomic Policies for Slovenia: An Application of the OPTCON Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 37-45, June.
  12. Kendrick, David A., 2005. "Stochastic control for economic models: past, present and the paths ahead," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 3-30, January.
  13. Halkos, George & Tsilika, Kyriaki, 2016. "Climate change impacts: Understanding the synergetic interactions using graph computing," MPRA Paper 75037, University Library of Munich, Germany.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tex:carewp:9701. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Caroline Thomas)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.