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An integrated Bayesian-Principal Component approach to macroeconomic resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Elton Beqiraj
  • Giovanni Di Bartolomeo
  • Marco Di Pietro
  • Carolina Serpieri

Abstract

We propose a new approach to study the resilience to business cycle fluctuations of the Central Europe and Baltic macro-region. By individually estimating six open economy DSGE models within the macro-region, we identify the business-cycle-volatility drivers for each country. Then, we use the outcome of our six estimates to conduct a principal component analysis to determine structural common characteristics required to explain economic resilience in the Central Europe and Baltic macro-region.

Suggested Citation

  • Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Carolina Serpieri, 2025. "An integrated Bayesian-Principal Component approach to macroeconomic resilience," CIMEO Working Paper Series 194, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:00194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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