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The Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Turkey: An Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model (Yeni Keynesyen Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge Modeli Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Para ve Maliye Politikalarinin Etkilesimi )

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This paper estimates a New Keynesian open economy DSGE model for Turkey by using Bayesian estimation technique for the period of 2002 : q1 - 2009 : q3. It studies fiscal and monetary policy interactions and their role in stabilisation of the economy using a small-scale model following the methodology outlined in Lubik and Schorfheide (2007). The general features of the model can be summarised as follows : Calvo style nominal price rigidities, perfect exchange rate pass-through, complete international asset markets, rule of thumb price setters and distortionary taxation. The parameter estimates show that the monetary authority reacts to inflation but only weakly reacts to the output gap. The degree of interest rate smoothing is high. Fiscal policy has contributed to the debt stabilization but there is no evidence on active fiscal stabilization of output gap.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/PUBLICATIONS/Research/Working+Paperss/2011/11-04
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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1104.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1104
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  1. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 536, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  3. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  4. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  5. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Analyzing the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Does Fiscal Policy Play a Valuable Role in Stabilisation?," Working Papers 2005_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2005.
  6. Tatiana Kirsanova & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2007. "Optimal fiscal feedback on debt in an economy with nominal rigidities," Working Paper 2007-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Ortiz, Alberto & Pablo, Ottonello & Sturzenegger, Federico & Talvi, Ernesto, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?," Working Paper Series rwp07-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  8. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2008. "The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 0944, European Central Bank.
  9. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 2002. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  13. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
  14. Karasoy, Almila & Kunter, Kursat & Us, Vuslat, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under free float using a small-scale macroeconomic model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1064-1073, December.
  15. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
  16. Hasan Ersel & Fatih Özatay, 2008. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 38-51, November.
  17. Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2003. "Mark-Up Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy Stabilization in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 4020, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Tatiana Kirsanova & Mathan Satchi & David Vines & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union," Discussion Papers 0611, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  19. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  20. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  21. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
  22. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  23. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
  24. Matteo Fragetta & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2007. "Strategic Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 0706, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  25. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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