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The Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Turkey: An Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model (Yeni Keynesyen Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge Modeli Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Para ve Maliye Politikalarinin Etkilesimi )

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This paper estimates a New Keynesian open economy DSGE model for Turkey by using Bayesian estimation technique for the period of 2002 : q1 - 2009 : q3. It studies fiscal and monetary policy interactions and their role in stabilisation of the economy using a small-scale model following the methodology outlined in Lubik and Schorfheide (2007). The general features of the model can be summarised as follows : Calvo style nominal price rigidities, perfect exchange rate pass-through, complete international asset markets, rule of thumb price setters and distortionary taxation. The parameter estimates show that the monetary authority reacts to inflation but only weakly reacts to the output gap. The degree of interest rate smoothing is high. Fiscal policy has contributed to the debt stabilization but there is no evidence on active fiscal stabilization of output gap.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1104.

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Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1104
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  1. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  2. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 2002. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Ortiz, Alberto & Pablo, Ottonello & Sturzenegger, Federico & Talvi, Ernesto, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?," Working Paper Series rwp07-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Fragetta, Matteo & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Strategic monetary and fiscal policy interactions: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 855-879, October.
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  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte & Luca Sessa, 2007. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 652, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  10. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
  11. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Analyzing the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Does Fiscal Policy Play a Valuable Role in Stabilisation?," Working Papers 2005_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2005.
  12. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  13. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  14. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  15. Tatiana Kirsanova & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. " Optimal Fiscal Feedback on Debt in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0609, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  16. Karasoy, Almila & Kunter, Kursat & Us, Vuslat, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under free float using a small-scale macroeconomic model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1064-1073, December.
  17. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  18. Ali Hakan Kara, 2006. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 0603, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  19. Tatiana Kirsanova & David Vines & Mathan Satchi & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 40, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  20. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  21. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2008. "The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 0944, European Central Bank.
  22. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  23. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  24. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  26. Hasan Ersel & Fatih Özatay, 2008. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 38-51, November.
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