IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/415.html

A Statistical Model for Simple, Fast and Reliable Measurement of Poverty. A revised version of DP 415

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The primus inter pares of the UN Millennium Development Goals is to reduce poverty. The only internationally accepted method of estimating poverty requires a measurement of total consumption based on a time and resource demanding household budget or integrated survey over 12 months. Rather than measuring poverty only, say every 5th year, a model is presented to predict poverty based upon a small set of household variables to be collected yearly between two 12 months household surveys. Information obtained from the light surveys may then be used to predict poverty rates. The key question is whether the inaccuracy in these predictions is acceptable. The standard errors presented are lower than the sampling errors to the poverty estimates based on the 12 months household surveys. Predictions based on this sample also indicate that the problem of misspecifications of models is not large. It is recommended to test these models at the country level and if the test results are comparable to those here, apply the approach presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Astrid Mathiassen, 2006. "A Statistical Model for Simple, Fast and Reliable Measurement of Poverty. A revised version of DP 415," Discussion Papers 415, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:415
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp415.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ravallion, M., 1992. "Poverty Comparisons - A Guide to Concepts and Methods," Papers 88, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
    2. Ravallion, M., 1998. "Poverty Lines in Theory and Practice," Papers 133, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
    3. Chris Elbers & Jean O. Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2003. "Micro--Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 355-364, January.
    4. Ravallion, Martin & Bidani, Benu, 1994. "How Robust Is a Poverty Profile?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(1), pages 75-102, January.
    5. Simon Appleton, 1995. ""The rich are just like us, only richer." Poverty functions or consumption functions? Evidence from Uganda," CSAE Working Paper Series 1995-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2000. "Combining Light Monitoring Surveys with Integrated Surveys to Improve Targeting for Poverty Reduction: The Case of Ghana," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 195-219, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Astrid Mathiassen, 2009. "A model based approach for predicting annual poverty rates without expenditure data," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 7(2), pages 117-135, June.
    2. Mercier, Marion & Ngenzebuke, Rama Lionel & Verwimp, Philip, 2020. "Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 822-840.
    3. Levine, Sebastian, 2006. "Measuring progress towards global poverty goals: Challenges and lessons from southern Africa," MPRA Paper 4932, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
    4. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 1999. "Les différences spatiales de pauvreté en Mauritanie : un test de dominance," Documents de travail 35, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    5. World Bank, 2016. "Hungary," World Bank Publications - Reports 24423, The World Bank Group.
    6. Tom Bundervoet, 2006. "Estimating Poverty in Burundi," HiCN Working Papers 20, Households in Conflict Network.
    7. F. le R. Booysen, 2001. "Non‐Payment Of Services: A Problem Of Ability‐To‐Pay," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(4), pages 674-697, December.
    8. Marion Mercier & Rama Lionel Ngenzebuke & Philip Verwimp, 2016. "Violence exposure and welfare over time: Evidence from the Burundi civil war," HiCN Working Papers 198 updated, Households in Conflict Network.
    9. Jitka Bartošová & Tomáš Želinský, 2013. "The extent of poverty in the Czech and Slovak Republics 15 years after the split," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 119-131, March.
    10. Charlier, Dorothée & Legendre, Bérangère, 2021. "Fuel poverty in industrialized countries: Definition, measures and policy implications a review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Michael Lokshin & Nithin Umapathi & Stefano Paternostro, 2006. "Robustness of subjective welfare analysis in a poor developing country: Madagascar 2001," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 559-591.
    12. Jolliffe, Dean, 2006. "The Cost of Living and the Geographic Distribution of Poverty," Economic Research Report 7254, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Jaax, Alexander, 2020. "Private sector development and provincial patterns of poverty: Evidence from Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 1998. "Modélisation des déterminants de la pauvreté et marché du travail en Afrique : le cas du Burkina Faso," Documents de travail 32, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    15. Coudouel, Aline & Hentschel, Jesko & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Измерение И Анализ Бедности [Poverty Measurement and Analysis]," MPRA Paper 10492, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gelaw, Fekadu, 2013. "Inefficiency and Incapability Gaps as Causes of Poverty: A Poverty Line-Augmented Efficiency Analysis Using Stochastic Distance Function," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(2), pages 1-45, August.
    17. World Bank, 2003. "Kenya : A Policy Agenda to Restore Growth," World Bank Publications - Reports 14363, The World Bank Group.
    18. Fofack, Hippolyte & Monga, Celestin & Tuluy, Hasan, 2001. "Household welfare and poverty dynamics in Burkina Faso : empirical evidence from household surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2590, The World Bank.
    19. ALi Abdel Gadir Ali, "undated". "Poverty in the Arab Region: A Selective Review," API-Working Paper Series 0402, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    20. Pape,Utz Johann & Parisotto,Luca, 2019. "Estimating Poverty in a Fragile Context -- The High Frequency Survey in South Sudan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8722, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: L Maasø (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.