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Common Currencies and FDI Flows

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  • Stefano Schiavo

Abstract

The paper investigates the impact of EMU on foreign direct investment flows. Using the option value approach to investment decisions, it is possible to show how exchange rate uncertainty hinders cross-border investment flows. By permanassume trading to take place in discrete time inside an endogenous price formation setting. Traders demand for the risky asset is expressed as a fraction of their individual wealth and is based on future prices forecast obtained on the basis of past market history. The general case is studied in which an arbitrary large number of heterogeneous traders operates in the market and any smooth function which maps the infinite information set to the present investment choice is allowed as agent's trading behavior. A complete characterization of equilibria is given and their stability conditions are derived. We find that this economy can only possess isolated generic equilibria where a single agent dominates the market and continuous manifolds of non-generic equilibria where many agents hold finite wealth shares. We show that irrespectively of agents number and of their behavior, all possible equilibria belong to a one dimensional "Equilibria Market Line". Finally we discuss the relative performances of different strategies and the selection principle governing market dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Common Currencies and FDI Flows," LEM Papers Series 2005/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2005/07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    3. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, July.
    4. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene & Oh, Yonghyup, 2001. "Information and capital flows: The determinants of transactions in financial assets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 783-796, May.
    5. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Camarero & Estrella Gómez-Herrera & Cecilio Tamarit, 2017. "New evidence on Trade and FDI: how large is the Euro effect?," Working Papers 1709, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    2. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    3. Jaroslava Hečková & Alex. Chapčáková & Eva Litavcová, 2016. "Ekonomická integrácia a jej vplyv na cezhraničné fúzie a akvizície v európskom priestore
      [Economic Integration and Its Influence on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions within the European Area]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(1), pages 19-33.
    4. Kyriacos Aristotelous & Stilianos Fountas, 2012. "What is the Impact of Currency Unions on FDI Flows? Evidence from Eurozone Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, pages 87-98.
    5. Michele Sabatino, 2016. "The de-industrialization process in South Italy and the new industrial policies in Europe," ERSA conference papers ersa16p885, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Cuneyt KILIC & Yýlmaz BAYAR & Feyza ARICA, 2014. "Effects of Currency Unions on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: The European Economic and Monetary Union Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 8-15.
    7. Michela Redoano, 2007. "Fiscal Interactions Among European Countries. Does the EU Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1952, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70aj72cl is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:143-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. De Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 55-106, January.
    11. De Santis, Roberto A. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Aviat, Antonin, 2009. "Cross-Border Mergers and acquisitions: Financial and institutional forces," Working Paper Series 1018, European Central Bank.
    12. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. De Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration," Post-Print hal-01022660, HAL.
    13. Anokye M. Adam, 2013. "Currency Union and Foreign Direct Investment Inflow: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 63(1-2), pages 121-132, June.
    14. Estrella Gómez-Herrera, 2013. "Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1087-1111, June.
    15. Anokye M. Adam, 2013. "Currency Union And Foreign Direct Investment Inflow: Evidence From Economic Community Of West African States (Ecowas)," Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, Far East Research Centre, vol. 11(5), pages 73-81, May.
    16. Selahattin GURIS & Irem SACAKLI SACILDI & Elif GUNEREN GENC, 2015. "Determining the Effects of Factors on FDI in Global Crisis Period," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10.
    17. Redoano, Michela, 2014. "Tax competition among European countries. Does the EU matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 353-371.

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    Keywords

    EMU; Currency Union; FDI; Uncertainty; Investment.;

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