Common Currencies and FDI Flows
The paper investigates the impact of EMU on foreign direct investment flows. Using the option value approach to investment decisions, it is possible to show how exchange rate uncertainty hinders cross-border investment flows. By permanassume trading to take place in discrete time inside an endogenous price formation setting. Traders demand for the risky asset is expressed as a fraction of their individual wealth and is based on future prices forecast obtained on the basis of past market history. The general case is studied in which an arbitrary large number of heterogeneous traders operates in the market and any smooth function which maps the infinite information set to the present investment choice is allowed as agent's trading behavior. A complete characterization of equilibria is given and their stability conditions are derived. We find that this economy can only possess isolated generic equilibria where a single agent dominates the market and continuous manifolds of non-generic equilibria where many agents hold finite wealth shares. We show that irrespectively of agents number and of their behavior, all possible equilibria belong to a one dimensional "Equilibria Market Line". Finally we discuss the relative performances of different strategies and the selection principle governing market dynamics.
|Date of creation:||30 Apr 2005|
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- Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 1999.
"The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows,"
NBER Working Papers
7336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Portes, Richard & Rey, Hélène, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 2225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 2000. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20203, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- R Portes & H Rey, 2000. "The Determinants Of Cross-Border Equity Flows," CEP Discussion Papers dp0446, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 2001. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," DELTA Working Papers 2001-08, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Richard Portes, 2005. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," Post-Print halshs-00754100, HAL.
- Andrew K. Rose & Charles Engel, 2000.
"Currency Unions and International Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
7872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Rose, Andrew K, 2003.
"A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, 07.
- Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene & Oh, Yonghyup, 2001. "Information and capital flows: The determinants of transactions in financial assets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 783-796, May.
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