IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spo/wpmain/infohdl2441-f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat1n0o44.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Migrations internationales, régimes de change et politiques sociales : un nouveau trilemme de politique économique ?

Author

Listed:
  • David Khoudour-Casteras

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

La thèse s'articule autour de deux idées principales : d'une part la mobilité du travail constitue un mécanisme d'ajustement essentiel en régime de change fixe ; d'autre part, le développement des politiques sociales contribue à ralentir le processus d'émigration. L'argumentation s'appuie à la fois sur une réflexion théorique, fondée notamment sur la théorie des zones monétaires optimales, et sur une analyse historique, centrée sur deux époques de l'histoire contemporaine : celle de l'étalon-or et celle de l'entre-deux-guerres. Le chapitre 1 s'attache ainsi à montrer le rôle clé des migrations internationales dans le processus d'ajustement de l'étalon-or. Le chapitre 2 analyse ensuite l'impact de la législation bismarckienne sur l'émigration allemande. Enfin, le chapitre 3 fournit une explication alternative à la chute de l'étalon-or. Au total, l'objectif de la thèse est de montrer l'existence d'un trilemme de politique économique entre migrations internationales, régimes de change et politiques sociales.

Suggested Citation

  • David Khoudour-Casteras, 2005. "Migrations internationales, régimes de change et politiques sociales : un nouveau trilemme de politique économique ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat1n0o44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat1n0o44/resources/khoudour-eco-2005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-1171, September.
    3. Tamim Bayoumi, 1990. "Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy, or Endogenous Behavior?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 360-387, June.
    4. Svensson, Lars E O & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Excess Capacity, Monopolistic Competition, and International Transmission of Monetary Disturbances," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 785-805, September.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    7. Yoshihide Ishiyama, 1975. "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: A Survey (La théorie des zones monétaires optimales: étude) (La teoría de las zonas monetarias óptimas: Un examen)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 344-383, July.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    9. Walter F. Willcox, 1929. "International Migrations, Volume I: Statistics," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fere29-1, March.
    10. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
    11. Harry Jerome, 1926. "Migration and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number jero26-1, March.
    12. Hanes, Christopher, 1993. "The Development of Nominal Wage Rigidity in the Late 19th Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 732-756, September.
    13. Sidney S. Alexander, 1952. "Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(2), pages 263-278, April.
    14. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February.
    15. Dora L. Costa, 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement: An American Economic History, 1880-1990," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cost98-1, March.
    16. Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 1997. "Degré de flexibilité des marchés du travail, ajustement à des chocs asymétriques et union monétaire européenne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 79-100.
    17. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 537-554, December.
    18. Hatton, T.J. & Williamson, J.G., 1992. "What Drove the Mass Migrations from Europe in the Late Ninteenth Century," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1614, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    19. Price V. Fishback & Shawn Everett Kantor, 2000. "A Prelude to the Welfare State: The Origins of Workers' Compensation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fish00-1, March.
    20. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    21. Carolyn L. Weaver, 1987. "Support of the Elderly before the Depression: Individual and Collective Arrangements," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 503-525, Fall.
    22. Christopher Hanes & John A. James, 2003. "Wage Adjustment Under Low Inflation: Evidence from U.S. History," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1414-1424, September.
    23. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1998. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 353-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Anthony Patrick O'Brien, 1989. "A Behavioral Explanation for Nominal Wage Rigidity During the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 719-735.
    25. Blanca Sánchez-Alonso, 2000. "European emigration in the late nineteenth century: the paradoxical case of Spain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 53(2), pages 309-330, May.
    26. David Khoudour-Castéras, 2002. "Taux de change fixes et migrations internationales. L'Étalon-or à l'aune de la théorie des zones monétaires optimales," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 82(3), pages 83-116.
    27. Harry Jerome, 1926. "Immigration and Business Cycles prior to 1890," NBER Chapters, in: Migration and Business Cycles, pages 77-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Costa, Dora L., 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226116082, December.
    29. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1996. "Globalization, Convergence, and History," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 277-306, June.
    30. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1, March.
    31. Fishback, Price V. & Kantor, Shawn Everett, 2000. "A Prelude to the Welfare State," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226251639, December.
    32. Peter Lindert, 2004. "Social Spending and Economic Growth," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 6-16.
    33. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Introduction to "Globalization in Historical Perspective"," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Harry Jerome, 1926. "Appendix to "Migration and Business Cycles"," NBER Chapters, in: Migration and Business Cycles, pages 245-250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998. "The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116519.
    36. Michael D. Bordo & Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Globalization in Historical Perspective," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord03-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat1n0o44 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat1n0o44 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat1n0o44 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Khoudour-Casteras, David, 2004. "The Impact of Bismarck's Social Legislation on German Emigration Before World War I," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6cs0d4xw, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    5. Timothy J. Hatton, 2010. "The Cliometrics Of International Migration: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 941-969, December.
    6. Timothy J Hatton & Zachary Ward, 2018. "International Migration in the Atlantic Economy 1850 - 1940," CEH Discussion Papers 02, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    7. Greenwood, Michael J. & Ward, Zachary, 2015. "Immigration quotas, World War I, and emigrant flows from the United States in the early 20th century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 76-96.
    8. Bohlin, Jan & Eurenius, Anna-Maria, 2010. "Why they moved -- Emigration from the Swedish countryside to the United States, 1881-1910," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 533-551, October.
    9. Bandiera, Oriana & Rasul, Imran & Viarengo, Martina, 2013. "The Making of Modern America: Migratory Flows in the Age of Mass Migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 23-47.
    10. Fernando Mayoral & Carlos Garcimartín, 2013. "The impact of population on the reduction of steady-state disparities across Spanish regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 50(1), pages 49-69, February.
    11. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Tarlok Singh, 2007. "Intertemporal Optimizing Models Of Trade And Current Account Balance: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 25-64, February.
    13. Ward, Zachary, 2017. "Birds of passage: Return migration, self-selection and immigration quotas," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 37-52.
    14. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2004. "International capital mobility in the long run and the short run: can we still learn from saving-investment data?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 113-131, February.
    15. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Seltzer, Andrew J., 2021. "Globalisation, migration, trade and growth: honouring the contribution of Jeff Williamson to Australian and Asia-Pacific economic history—Guest Editor's introduction," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111038, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Fifty Years of Compositional Changes in U.S. Out-Migration, 1908-1957," IZA Discussion Papers 7258, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Chen, Yao & Ward, Felix, 2019. "When do fixed exchange rates work? Evidence from the Gold Standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 158-172.
    20. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Jongwoo Kim, 1998. "Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?," NBER Working Papers 6738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor, 1998. "Exchange controls, international capital flows and saving-investment correlations in the UK: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(1), pages 69-98, March.
    22. Price Fishback & Samuel Allen & Jonathan Fox & Brendan Livingston, 2010. "A Patchwork Safety Net: A Survey Of Cliometric Studies Of Income Maintenance Programs In The United States In The First Half Of The Twentieth Century," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 895-940, December.
    23. Andrew J. Seltzer, 2021. "Globalisation, migration, trade and growth: Honouring the contribution of Jeff Williamson to Australian and Asia‐Pacific economic history—Guest Editor's introduction," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 128-135, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat1n0o44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Spire @ Sciences Po Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecspofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.