IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sol/wpaper/2013-343818.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election

Author

Listed:
  • Bouke Klein Teeselink
  • Georgios Melios

Abstract

Do mass mobilizations bring about social change? This paper investigates the impact of the Black Lives Matter protests that erupted after George Floyd’s death on the 2020 presidential election. Using local precipitation as an exogenous source of protest variation, we document a marked shift in support for the Democratic candidate in counties that experienced more protesting activity. We use a spatial two-stage least squares estimator, and show that conventional TSLS estimators overestimate the effect size by a factor three. Ancillary analyses show that the effect cannot be explained by changes in turnout. Instead, protests shifted people’s attitudes about racial disparities.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouke Klein Teeselink & Georgios Melios, 2022. "Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election," Working Papers CEB 22-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/343818
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/343818/3/wp22007.pdf
    File Function: Full text for the whole work, or for a work part
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hollyer, James R. & Rosendorff, B. Peter & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2015. "Transparency, Protest, and Autocratic Instability," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 109(4), pages 764-784, November.
    2. Ranson, Matthew, 2014. "Crime, weather, and climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 274-302.
    3. Wasow, Omar, 2020. "Agenda Seeding: How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion and Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 638-659, August.
    4. Gordon Tullock, 1971. "The paradox of revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 89-99, September.
    5. Brian Jacob & Lars Lefgren & Enrico Moretti, 2007. "The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior: Evidence from Weather Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(3).
    6. Frijters, Paul & Lalji, Chitwan & Pakrashi, Debayan, 2020. "Daily weather only has small effects on wellbeing in the US," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 747-762.
    7. Ansolabehere, Stephen D. & Iyengar, Shanto & Simon, Adam, 1999. "Replicating Experiments Using Aggregate and Survey Data: The Case of Negative Advertising and Turnout," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 901-909, December.
    8. Lohmann, Susanne, 1994. "Information Aggregation through Costly Political Action," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 518-530, June.
    9. Francesco Passarelli & Guido Tabellini, 2017. "Emotions and Political Unrest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 903-946.
    10. Sobolev, Anton & Chen, M. Keith & Joo, Jungseock & Steinert-Threlkeld, Zachary C., 2020. "News and Geolocated Social Media Accurately Measure Protest Size Variation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1343-1351, November.
    11. Andreas Madestam & Daniel Shoag & Stan Veuger & David Yanagizawa-Drott, 2013. "Do Political Protests Matter? Evidence from the Tea Party Movement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1633-1685.
    12. Barton, Jared & Castillo, Marco & Petrie, Ragan, 2016. "Negative campaigning, fundraising, and voter turnout: A field experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 99-113.
    13. Collins, William J. & Margo, Robert A., 2007. "The Economic Aftermath of the 1960s Riots in American Cities: Evidence from Property Values," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 849-883, December.
    14. repec:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:04:p:1012-1028_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Soumyajit Mazumder, 2018. "The Persistent Effect of U.S. Civil Rights Protests on Political Attitudes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 922-935, October.
    16. Shadmehr, Mehdi & Bernhardt, Dan, 2011. "Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs: Coordination, Public Signals, and Punishment Dilemmas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 829-851, November.
    17. Quattrone, George A. & Tversky, Amos, 1988. "Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 719-736, September.
    18. Gerber, Alan S. & Green, Donald P. & Larimer, Christopher W., 2008. "Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 33-48, February.
    19. Steinert-Threlkeld, Zachary C., 2017. "Spontaneous Collective Action: Peripheral Mobilization During the Arab Spring," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 379-403, May.
    20. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2020. "Black Lives Matter Protests and Risk Avoidance: The Case of Civil Unrest During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. David M. Drukker & Ingmar Prucha & Rafal Raciborski, 2013. "Maximum likelihood and generalized spatial two-stage least-squares estimators for a spatial-autoregressive model with spatial-autoregressive disturbances," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 13(2), pages 221-241, June.
    22. Enos, Ryan D. & Kaufman, Aaron R. & Sands, Melissa L., 2019. "Can Violent Protest Change Local Policy Support? Evidence from the Aftermath of the 1992 Los Angeles Riot," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1012-1028, November.
    23. David M. Drukker & Peter Egger & Ingmar R. Prucha, 2013. "On Two-Step Estimation of a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances and Endogenous Regressors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5-6), pages 686-733, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dagaev, Dmitry & Lamberova, Natalia & Sobolev, Anton, 2019. "Stability of revolutionary governments in the face of mass protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Sangnier, Marc & Zylberberg, Yanos, 2017. "Protests and trust in the state: Evidence from African countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 55-67.
    3. Hager, Anselm & Hensel, Lukas & Hermle, Johannes & Roth, Christopher, 2019. "Political Activists as Free-Riders: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 12759, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. El-Mallakh, Nelly, 2020. "How do protests affect electoral choices? Evidence from Egypt," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 299-322.
    5. González, Felipe, 2020. "Collective action in networks: Evidence from the Chilean student movement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2018. "Rent extraction, revolutionary threat, and coups in non-democracies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1082-1103.
    7. Oliver Engist & Felix Schafmeister, 2022. "Do political protests mobilize voters? Evidence from the Black Lives Matter protests," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 293-313, December.
    8. Jarke-Neuert, Johannes & Perino, Grischa & Schwickert, Henrike, 2021. "Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest," SocArXiv sh6dm, Center for Open Science.
    9. Felipe González & Magdalena Larreboure, 2021. "The Impact of the Women’s March on the U.S. House Election," Documentos de Trabajo 560, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    10. Davide Cantoni & David Y Yang & Noam Yuchtman & Y Jane Zhang, 2019. "Protests as Strategic Games: Experimental Evidence from Hong Kong's Antiauthoritarian Movement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 134(2), pages 1021-1077.
    11. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2015. "Inefficient predation and political transitions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 37-48.
    12. Thomas Apolte, 2016. "Gordon Tullock’s theory of revolution and dictatorship," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 158-178, June.
    13. Kemal Kivanç Aköz & Pablo Hernández‐Lagos, 2019. "Rents from power for a dissident elite and mass mobilization," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(4), pages 584-604, September.
    14. Michael Dorsch & Karl Dunz & Paul Maarek, 2015. "Macro shocks and costly political action in non-democracies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 381-404, March.
    15. Leonardo Bursztyn & Davide Cantoni & David Y. Yang & Noam Yuchtman & Y. Jane Zhang, 2021. "Persistent Political Engagement: Social Interactions and the Dynamics of Protest Movements," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 233-250, June.
    16. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina, 2020. "Facebook Causes Protests," HiCN Working Papers 323, Households in Conflict Network.
    17. Luis R. Martinez & Jonas Jessen & Guo Xu, 2023. "A Glimpse of Freedom: Allied Occupation and Political Resistance in East Germany," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-106, January.
    18. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    19. Abraham Aldama & Mateo Vásquez-Cortés & Lauren Elyssa Young, 2019. "Fear and citizen coordination against dictatorship," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(1), pages 103-125, January.
    20. Hungerman, Daniel & Rinz, Kevin & Weninger, Tim & Yoon, Chungeun, 2018. "Political campaigns and church contributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 403-426.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collective Action; Black Lives Matter; Presidential Elections; Protests; IV;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/343818. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebulbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Pauwels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebulbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.