IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/shg/dpapea/28.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty: A Historical Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Yasuhiro Sakai

    (Faculty of Economics, Shiga University)

Abstract

The economics of risk and uncertainty has a long history over 300 years. This paper aims to systematically summarize and critically reevaluate it, with special reference to John M. Keynes and Frank H. Knight, the two giants in modern times. In our opinion, there are the six stages of development, with each stage vividly reflecting its historical background. The first stage, named the Initial Age, corresponds to a long period before 1700, the one in which statistics was firmly established by B. Pascal as a branch of mathematics but economic theory per se was not well developed. The second stage, called the "B-A" Age, covers the period from 1700 to 1880, is characterized by the two superstars, Daniel Bernoulli and Adam Smith. The third stage from 1880 to 1940 may be named the "K-K" Age because it was dominated by J.M. Keynes and F.H. Knight. The fourth stage, called the "N-M" age, eyewitnesses the birth of game theory, with von Neumann and Morgenstern being its foundering fathers. The fifth stage from 1970 to 2000, named the "A-S" Age, is characterized by several distinguished scholars with their initials "A" or "S". Finally, in 2000 and onward, while many doubts have been raised about existing doctrines, new approaches have not emerged yet, thus being named the Uncertain Age. The relationship between Keynes and Knight is both complex and rather strange. It has a history of separating, approaching, separating again and approaching again. As the saying goes, a new wine should be poured into a new bottle. We would urgently need a Keynes and/or a Knight toward a new horizon of the economics of risk and uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuhiro Sakai, 2018. "On the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty: A Historical Perspective," Discussion Papers CRR Discussion Paper Series A: General 28, Shiga University, Faculty of Economics,Center for Risk Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:shg:dpapea:28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econ.shiga-u.ac.jp/risk/DPA28Sakai20180112.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hicks, J. R., 1969. "A Theory of Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198811633, Decembrie.
    2. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "The Theory of "Screening," Education, and the Distribution of Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 283-300, June.
    3. Sakai, Yasuhiro, 1985. "The value of information in a simple duopoly model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 36-54, June.
    4. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    5. Ross B. Emmett, 2010. "Frank H. Knight," Chapters, in: Ross B. Emmett (ed.), The Elgar Companion to the Chicago School of Economics, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. O. Kuznetsova, 2022. "Approaches To Managing Innovative Risks Of Industrial Companies," Strategic decisions and risk management, Real Economy Publishing House, vol. 12(4).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Razin, Assaf & Goldstein, Itay, 2003. "An Information-Based Trade-off Between Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment: Volatility, Transparency and," CEPR Discussion Papers 3747, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Rodríguez, Elsa Mirta M. & Lacaze, María Victoria & Lupín, Beatriz, 2007. "Willingness to pay for organic food in Argentina: evidence from a consumer survey," Nülan. Deposited Documents 1300, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    3. Alexander Reisz, 1999. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty, the Investment Policy of Levered Firms and Corporate Debt Yields," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-044, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    4. Bengtsson, Ingemar, 2005. "Transaction Costs, Money and Units of Account," Working Papers 2005:29, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. Vegas, E & Ganimian, A. J., 2013. "Theory and Evidence on Teacher Policies in Developed and Developing Countries," Working Paper 104291, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    6. Lee, Wayne L & Thakor, Anjan V & Vora, Gautam, 1983. "Screening, Market Signalling, and Capital Structure Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1507-1518, December.
    7. Weshah Razzak & El Mostafa Bentour, 2020. "The Transitional Dynamic of Finance Led Growth," Discussion Papers 2001, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
    8. Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan, 2013. "The development of financial markets and financial theory: 50 years of interaction," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 5, pages 157-194, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    9. Christophe Chamley, 1983. "Entrepreneurial Abilities and Liabilities in a Model of Self-Selection," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(1), pages 70-80, Spring.
    10. Pankaj Pandey & Einar Snekkenes, 2016. "Using Financial Instruments to Transfer the Information Security Risks," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-62, May.
    11. Darby, Michael R. & Lott, John Jr., 1989. "Qualitative information, reputation, and monopolistic competition," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 87-103, June.
    12. Charles-Cadogan, G., 2021. "Market Instability, Investor Sentiment, And Probability Judgment Error in Index Option Prices," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 71, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    13. Koumenta, Maria & Pagliero, Mario & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2022. "Occupational Regulation, Institutions, and Migrants’ Labor Market Outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Marcello Spanò, 2013. "Theoretical explanations of corporate hedging," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 3(7), pages 84-102, July.
    15. Alejandro Vargas Sanchez, 2014. "Estructura de capital óptima en presencia de costos de dificultades financieras," Investigación & Desarrollo 0214, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Jan 2014.
    16. Marcello Spanò, 2013. "Theoretical explanations of corporate hedging," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 3(7), pages 84-102, July.
    17. Qiao, Lu & Fei, Junjun, 2022. "Government subsidies, enterprise operating efficiency, and “stiff but deathless” zombie firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    18. Samuli Leppälä, 2015. "Economic Analysis Of Knowledge: The History Of Thought And The Central Themes," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 263-286, April.
    19. Shoaib Ali & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Relationship between Credit Rating, Capital Structure and Earning Management Behaviour: Evidence from Pakistani Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:121, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    20. Perloff, Jeffrey M & Salop, Steven C, 1986. "Firm-Specific Information, Product Differentiation, and Industry Equilibrium," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(0), pages 184-202, Suppl. No.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics of risk and uncertainty; Bernoulli; Keynes; Knight;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:shg:dpapea:28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mari Yamasaki (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feshijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.