IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sce/scecfa/258.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning Parameters in Non Linear Ecological Models

Author

Listed:
  • W. Davis Dechert

    (University of Wisconsin)

  • Sharon I. O'Donnell

    (Baylor College of Medicine)

  • William A. Brock

    (University of Wisconsin)

Abstract

This paper builds on our previous work that used a non linear stochastic dynamic programming problem to solve for the optimal level of phosphorus discharged into a watershed. Typically, there is a trade off between profits from agriculture and environmental damage due to excessive levels of phosphorus (from farm animal wastes) in the watershed of a freshwater lake. The optimal management of the level of phosphorus depends not only on the costs and benefits, but also on the physical properties of the lake and on random shocks. Some lakes are more susceptible to damage from excess levels of phosphorus than others. To determine the optimal level of phosphorus for a given lake, it is necessary to learn the physical nature of the lake and its watershed. We adapted the method of optimal control with Bayes' learning of Easley and Kiefer (Econometrica 1988) to this problem. We show that in the context of the dynamic model for the flow of phosphorus in a lake, there is complete learning, i.e., there is no bandit problem in this context. We numerically solve the model and use Monte Carlo methods to solve for the mean time to learn and to determine the sensitivity of the speed of learning with respect to changes in the variance of the shocks

Suggested Citation

  • W. Davis Dechert & Sharon I. O'Donnell & William A. Brock, 2006. "Learning Parameters in Non Linear Ecological Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 258, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~wdechert/jdea.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peterson,G.D. & Carpenter,S.R. & Brock,W.A., 2002. "Uncertainty and the management of multi-state ecosystems : an apparently rational route to collapse," Working papers 10, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    2. Karl-Göran Mäler & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Aart de Zeeuw, 2003. "The Economics of Shallow Lakes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(4), pages 603-624, December.
    3. Skiba, A K, 1978. "Optimal Growth with a Convex-Concave Production Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 527-539, May.
    4. Wagener, F. O. O., 2003. "Skiba points and heteroclinic bifurcations, with applications to the shallow lake system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1533-1561, July.
    5. Dechert, W.D. & O'Donnell, S.I., 2006. "The stochastic lake game: A numerical solution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1569-1587.
    6. John Rust, 1997. "Using Randomization to Break the Curse of Dimensionality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 487-516, May.
    7. Ludwig,D. & Carpenter,S. & Brock,W., 2002. "Optimal phosphorus loading for a potentially eutrophic lake," Working papers 9, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dechert, W.D. & O'Donnell, S.I., 2006. "The stochastic lake game: A numerical solution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1569-1587.
    2. Zeiler, I. & Caulkins, J.P. & Tragler, G., 2011. "Optimal control of interacting systems with DNSS property: The case of illicit drug use," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 60-73.
    3. Dmitry Gromov & Thorsten Upmann, 2021. "Dynamics and Economics of Shallow Lakes: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Aart Zeeuw & Chuan-Zhong Li, 2016. "The Economics of Tipping Points," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 513-517, November.
    5. I. Zeiler & J.P. Caulkins & G. Tragler, 2011. "Optimal Control of Interacting Systems with DNSS Property: The Case of Illicit Drug Use," Post-Print hal-00978258, HAL.
    6. Rosser Jr., J. Barkley, 2007. "The rise and fall of catastrophe theory applications in economics: Was the baby thrown out with the bathwater?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3255-3280, October.
    7. Zeiler, I. & Caulkins, J.P. & Tragler, G., 2011. "Optimal control of interacting systems with DNSS property: The case of illicit drug use," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 60-73, April.
    8. Francesco Bartaloni, 2021. "Existence of the Optimum in Shallow Lake Type Models with Hysteresis Effect," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 190(2), pages 358-392, August.
    9. Ranjan, Ram & Shortle, James, 2007. "The environmental Kuznets curve when the environment exhibits hysteresis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 204-215, October.
    10. Kossioris, G. & Plexousakis, M. & Xepapadeas, A. & de Zeeuw, A., 2011. "On the optimal taxation of common-pool resources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1868-1879.
    11. Wagener, F.O.O., 2013. "Economics of environmental regime shifts," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    12. Lemoine, Derek M. & Traeger, Christian P., 2010. "Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change," CUDARE Working Papers 98127, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. Florian Wagener, 2013. "Shallow lake economics run deep: nonlinear aspects of an economic-ecological interest conflict," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 423-450, December.
    14. Reddy, P.V. & Schumacher, J.M. & Engwerda, J.C., 2012. "Optimal Management and Differential Games in the Presence of Threshold Effects - The Shallow Lake Model," Other publications TiSEM d0dda6e4-ecbd-4999-a1f3-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Crépin, Anne-Sophie & Biggs, Reinette & Polasky, Stephen & Troell, Max & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2012. "Regime shifts and management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 15-22.
    16. Tatiana Kiseleva & Florian Wagener, 2015. "Bifurcations of Optimal Vector Fields," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(1), pages 24-55, February.
    17. Engelbert Dockner & Florian Wagener, 2014. "Markov perfect Nash equilibria in models with a single capital stock," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(3), pages 585-625, August.
    18. Johannus Janmaat, 2012. "Fishing in a Shallow Lake: Exploring a Classic Fishery Model in a Habitat with Shallow Lake Dynamics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 215-239, February.
    19. F. O. O. Wagener, 2006. "Skiba Points for Small Discount Rates," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 261-277, February.
    20. Heijnen, P. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2013. "Avoiding an ecological regime shift is sound economic policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1322-1341.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Learning; pollution; stochastic dynamic programming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sceeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.