External debt in emerging economies: a macrodynamical model of financial fragility
Following both the balance-sheet approach to currency crises and the financial fragility literature, the paper presents an open economy macrodynamical monetary growth model with the aim of giving an endogenous characterisation to the process that, over time, leads an emerging economy to accumulate dangerously high levels of debt and to be vulnerable to macroeconomic instability. The model explores the nonlinear real and financial interaction at work, with the endogenously generated liquidity feeding back dynamically to firmsâ€™ investment, the level of output, the interest rate and the expected rate of return. The paper shows that the system may display instability if lenders and borrowers are not too concerned with firmsâ€™ degree of leverage, profitability expectations do not take adequately into account firmsâ€™ financial structure, and destabilising feedback mechanisms dominate, which go from debt accumulation and profitability expectations onto the rate of profit and the interest rate. As a result, the economy may incur in excessive foreign borrowing. The consequent worsening in firmsâ€™ balance sheets may turn into financial fragility, and over time bring about a fall in external lending. A prolonged recession may thus follow, possibly calling into question the currency arrangements; hence, a financial crisis may turn into a currency crisis.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2002|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Del Castro Laurenziano 9, 00161 Roma|
Phone: +39 6 49766353
Fax: +39 6 4462040
Web page: http://sapienza.dipecodir.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 121-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998.
"Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2004. "Debt intolerance: Executive summary," MPRA Paper 13398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, 03.
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2003. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," BIS Working Papers 139, Bank for International Settlements.
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2003. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," NBER Working Papers 10128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
- Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mulino, Marcella, 2002. "Currency boards, credibility and crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 381-386, December.
- Gatti, D. Delli & Gallegati, M. & Gardini, L., 1993. "Investment confidence, corporate debt and income fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 161-187, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Luisa Giuriato)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.