What are the Distributional Implications of Halving Poverty in South Africa when Growth Alone is not Enough?
The South African government has set a target of halving poverty by 2014. Using microdata from the 2005/6 Income and Expenditure Survey, this article frames governmentâ€™s stated target of halving poverty by 2014 in terms of specific measures of the poverty gap and poverty headcount ratio. With the poverty line as defined here, about half the South African population is classified as poor. Even so, the aggregate poverty gap is only about 3% of GDP. Projections of poverty in 2014 under various growth scenarios indicate that growth alone will be insufficient to halve poverty by then. It would take average annual growth of 8.7% between 2006 and 2014 to halve both the poverty gap and poverty headcount ratio with the current distribution of income and expenditure. However, projections of the effects of a range of growth and distributional scenarios on poverty, using a new method for simulating pro-poor distributional change, indicate that halving poverty appears feasible with moderate growth rates and fairly mild pro-poor distributional change. The results are indicative as to the scale of distributional changes necessary to halve poverty under various growth scenarios
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Newlands on Main, F0301 3rd Floor Mariendahl House, cnr Campground and Main Rds, Claremont, 7700 Cape Town|
Phone: 021 671-3980
Fax: +27 21 671 3912
Web page: http://www.econrsa.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Servaas van der Berg & Ronelle Burger & Rulof Burger & Megan Louw & Derek Yu, 2006.
"Trends in Poverty and Inequality since the Political Transition,"
06104, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
- Servaas van der Berg & Ronelle Burger & Rulof Burger & Megan Louw & Derek Yu, 2005. "Trends in poverty and inequality since the political transition," Working Papers 01/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Tanton)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.